The latest quarterly economic growth report out this morning came in higher than expected (though the expected figure was fairly low—a 1.5% annualize rate). More fuel for the current narrative: the financial press is nearly unanimous—the Federal Reserve are geniuses, and we’re headed for a magical “soft landing” in the current interest rate cycle.
That’s what makes me predict a recession for mid year: whenever the establishment crowd says X, bet on Y. You’ll be right more often than not. And thus, some historical evidence:
Notice: All comments are subject to moderation. Our comments are intended to be a forum for civil discourse bearing on the subject under discussion. Commenters who stray beyond the bounds of civility or employ what we deem gratuitous vulgarity in a comment — including, but not limited to, “s***,” “f***,” “a*******,” or one of their many variants — will be banned without further notice in the sole discretion of the site moderator.