The latest quarterly economic growth report out this morning came in higher than expected (though the expected figure was fairly low—a 1.5% annualize rate). More fuel for the current narrative: the financial press is nearly unanimous—the Federal Reserve are geniuses, and we’re headed for a magical “soft landing” in the current interest rate cycle.
That’s what makes me predict a recession for mid year: whenever the establishment crowd says X, bet on Y. You’ll be right more often than not. And thus, some historical evidence:
