The stats geek Nate Silver offered up an interesting observation at the New York Times a few days ago. Since the late 1970s there have been two primary surveys of consumer and business sentiment about the economy—the University of Michigan survey, and the Conference Board survey. The Michigan survey is designed to measure pocketbook sentiment of consumers, while the Conference Board tries to measure business conditions.
For more than 40 years the two surveys have tracked each other fairly closely—until Biden became president. Now there is a large divergence (click to embiggen):
Silver comments:
The Michigan survey’s questions are highly sensitive to inflation, whereas the Conference Board’s are not. . . Polls show that Mr. Biden has lost the most ground with lower-income voters — even as the robust labor market has helped the working class. . . If Mr. Biden loses, it may be because the relationship between the economy and perceptions of the president has weakened — not because voters are mistaking a good economy for a bad one.
Chaser—income growth may have picked up the last few months, but for most of Biden’s president it has stunk:
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