2020 Election
November 4, 2020 — Steven Hayward
Let’s remember what Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) expected: Heh. This is one reason why if we could measure GNH (Gross National Happiness) among left and right just now, we’d find conservatives are pretty happy. As of this moment, the final results are almost a no-lose election for conservatives. If Biden hangs on to win (still not certain this will happen), Democrats will have elected a lame duck.
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November 4, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
How does President Trump’s vote compare with Republican Senate candidates in the key states? Here is the breakdown (numbers from Politico except where otherwise indicated): In Georgia, Sen. Perdue is winning 50.6 percent of the vote compared to 50.2. percent for Trump. Perdue is at +3.5, Trump at +1.6. In North Carolina, Sen. Tillis is winning 48.7 percent compared to 50.1 for Trump. But Tillis is at +1.8, Trump at
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November 4, 2020 — John Hinderaker
Much attention has been focused on the GOP’s successful effort to retain control of the Senate, not so much on the races in the House, where Democrats had hoped to widen their majority. It didn’t happen; in fact, Republicans netted five new seats, and counting, with several races unresolved. Politico headlines: “‘Dumpster fire’: House Democrats trade blame after Tuesday’s damage.” House Democrats are asking themselves one question after Tuesday’s election
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November 4, 2020 — Steven Hayward
Did you know that today is apparently National Stress Awareness Day? Whoever thought of the timing for this is both a comic genius and (if you’re a Democrat) an evil genius. The great thing about this election is that even if Biden manages to win by the skin of his teeth, the left will still be in need of grief counselors because this isn’t how it was supposed to happen.
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November 4, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
With a winner yet to be determined in a bunch of states, this race could go either way, and might not end up being all that close in the electoral college. However, it looks to me like the single most likely outcome is a Biden win by 270-268, the narrowest possible margin. In this scenario, Trump wins Pennsylvania and holds on in North Carolina and Georgia. Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin,
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November 4, 2020 — John Hinderaker
Things didn’t go as well last night as I had expected, or as well as they started out. But the presidential election is still not over, and there are plenty of bright spots in the other races. Most notably, Republicans in Arizona are saying that President Trump may yet win that state: Thorough breakdown, we believe @realDonaldTrump’s win margin in AZ will be closer to 30K votes, probably just under
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November 4, 2020 — Scott Johnson
I went to bed at 2:00 a.m. (Central) thinking President Trump had won the election. The morning after the result is in doubt. It’s too damn close. The purpose of this post is to invite readers to weigh in with comments while we await additional results. President Trump does not appear to have added any states to those he won in 2016 and appears likely to lose a few this
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November 4, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
The New York Times’ “needle,” which had predicted that President Trump would win Georgia by 3 or 4 points and put the probability of a Trump win at 80 percent, now likes Biden to prevail in that state. It predicts Biden by 0.2 percent and gives him a 57 percent chance. Losing Georgia would be a huge blow to Trump’s reelection prospects. Things are looking very good for the Senate
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November 3, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Prop 16 is the left’s attempt to repeal California’s ban on racial and other forms of discrimination by the State. Prop 16 is losing. With about 20 percent of the vote in, “No” was leading “Yes” by eight points 54-46. I’m told by a leading opponent of Prop 16 that “No” is doing better than expected in each of the major counties. Based on the vote nationwide in the presidential
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November 3, 2020 — Steven Hayward
As of this writing (midnight eastern) it is still too close to call. The upper midwest states will make the difference, and it may take several days (or several weeks of court cases) to determine the winner. But two things are clear already: there has been an even bigger epic failure of the mainstream polls than there was in 2016. A related point is that the high turnout—perhaps the largest
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November 3, 2020 — John Hinderaker
Here are some tweets that sum up the state of play as of 9:15 Eastern: An impressive showing by @realDonaldTrump in TX’s Rio Grande Valley. Along the border, the @TexasGOP is performing far above past results. This shows the move with Latino voters to the GOP is not contained to Cubans in Florida. #txlege — Cary Cheshire (@CaryCheshireTX) November 4, 2020 Trump lost Loudon County in northern Virginia by 17
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November 3, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Florida may be the first swing state where enough votes have been counted to provide insight into the outcome. About half of the expected vote is in. Last I saw, Biden leads 51-48.5. But do we know enough about the nature of the votes counted to read the tea leaves? I doubt it, and suspect that this will be the case in other swing states, as well. For what it’s
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November 3, 2020 — Scott Johnson
A commenter asked us to open an election day thread that can be updated to keep comments in one place. I’m not sure how much we will have to say before the polls close, but I wanted to kick it off with this post and invite commenters to have their say. RealClearPolitics has posted the predictive column posted at Medium by Phillip Stutts. Stutts boldly looks ahead in “Here is
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November 2, 2020 — John Hinderaker
Here are three disparate observations, the common denominator being optimism. First: The polls are shifting in the last days before the election, just as they did in 2016. From Townhall, “If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes.” Check out the polls cited there. They include Michigan (Trump 48/46), Pennsylvania (Trump 49/47), Wisconsin (Trump 50/49), Florida (Trump 49/45), and so on. We are at
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November 2, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Yesterday, I noted a poll by the Des Moines Register that finds President Trump leading in Iowa by seven points. The same poll gives Sen. Joni Ernst a five point lead in her race for reelection. The Des Moines Register poll is an outlier when it comes to the presidential race. On the other hand, the track record of its pollster is outstanding. The Des Moines Register poll is less
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October 31, 2020 — John Hinderaker
Late Thursday night, I taped an appearance with host Rowan Dean on Australia’s Sky News. In that interview, I previewed the predictions I made last night during our VIP Live broadcast. This is the edited version of my interview as it appeared on Australian television: I think President Trump will be re-elected, and I think the Republicans will hold the Senate, narrowly. The tide is obviously moving in a Republican
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October 30, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll by SurveyUSA finds the Maine Senate race between Sen. Susan Collins and Sarah Giddeon to be a dead heat. Gideon, who once held a clear lead, is ahead by a statistically insignificant one point margin, 46-45. The poll was conducted from October 23-27. Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Votes for third party candidates, of which there are two this year, will be distributed to the Democrat
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