Posted on April 24, 2024 by John Hinderaker in Joe Biden

The Pause That Depresses

I’m sure Biden’s staff has had conversations with him about not reading the instructions on his teleprompter, but whatever they have done isn’t working. Is it possible to use different colors on a teleprompter? I don’t know, maybe they could put the text in black and the stage directions in red. Here, Biden is instructed to pause so his audience can take up the “four more years” chant. Of course you know what happened:

I don’t know whether I could make it through another four years of Biden as president, but in any event, I am pretty sure he can’t.

Posted on by Steven Hayward in 2024 Election, Economy

State of the Race

It is tempting to suggest that the best of all worlds is for Trump to be tied down in the courtroom, where he can’t let fly with one of his frequent provocations, while Joe Biden gets out and campaigns more, reminding Americans that he is a doddering fool.

The big story last week was that Biden is the comeback kid! The polls have closed, with some putting Biden back in the lead! It was that boffo State of the Union speech what did it, along with Trump’s ongoing legal troubles and the Arizona Supreme Court opinion supposedly establishing the Handmaid’s Tale as the law of the desert land.

But today Bloomberg reports its latest poll, showing Trump going back into a statistically significant lead (49 – 43 nationally), especially in the crucial swing states:

President Joe Biden’s recent polling bump in key battleground states has mostly evaporated as a deep current of pessimism about the trajectory of the US economy hurts his standing with voters.

The April Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Biden is ahead in just one of the seven states most likely to determine the outcome of his matchup with Donald Trump, leading Michigan by 2 percentage points. Biden trails the presumptive GOP nominee slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his deficit in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is larger.

Here’s the chart for the poll:

Bloomberg says “It’s the economy, stupid”:

The reversion comes as poll respondents offered a bleak near-term view of the economy, the issue that has consistently registered as their top concern at the ballot box. A majority of swing-state voters see worsening economic conditions in the coming months, with fewer than one in five saying they expect inflation and borrowing costs to be lower by the end of the year. Despite a resilient job market, only 23% of respondents said the employment rate would improve over the same time period.

My pal John Barnes notes:

Note that most of those companies are in the sectors where professionals are supposed to be heavily Democratic today (especially in the major media). Who are going to believe, those rosy job and growth statistics the Biden Administration reports every month, or your lying eyes watching your colleagues (or perhaps yourself) packing up their offices?

Then there’s this oddity, from CNBC:

Something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately

Calling the state of the U.S. jobs market these days stable seems like an understatement considering the latest data coming out of the Labor Department.

That’s because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven’t fluctuated at all — as in zero.

For five of the past six weeks, the level of initial jobless filings totaled exactly 212,000. Given a labor force that is 168 million strong, achieving such stasis seems at least unusual if not uncanny, yet that is what the figures released each Thursday morning since mid-March have shown.

The consistency has raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street. The only week that varied was March 30, with 222,000.

“How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number,” market veteran Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, posted Thursday on X.

I’m really beginning to think a Trump landslide is possible—even likely—if he campaigns sensibly. He might even win bigger if he’s behind bars and can’t campaign at all.

Chaser—You hate to see it, but David Brooks is suddenly pessimistic about Biden:

Why I’m Getting More Pessimistic About Biden’s Chances This Fall

I still believe Biden is the party’s strongest candidate, but I’m getting more pessimistic about his chances of winning.

The first reason is not political rocket science: Voters prefer the Republicans on key issues like inflation and immigration. Most Donald Trump supporters I know aren’t swept up in his cult of personality; they vote for him because they are conservative types who like G.O.P. policies and think Trump is a more effective executive than Biden.

The second reason I’ve become more pessimistic is because of what’s happening to the youth vote. NBC News released an interesting poll last weekend finding that interest in this election is lower than in any other presidential election in nearly 20 years. Only 64 percent of Americans said they have a high degree of interest in the election, compared to, say, 77 percent who had high interest in 2020.

But what really leaps out is the numbers for voters ages 18 to 34. Only 36 percent of those voters said they are highly interested.

P.S. Meanwhile, Biden loses the battle with the teleprompter once again:

Posted on by Steven Hayward in The Daily Chart

The Daily Chart: The University Abyss

As we watch our most elite universities circle the drain by capitulating to a mob indistinguishable from the German professoriate that cheered on the Nazi Party in the 1920s and 1930s, I offer our quote for the day from our friend Inez Feltscher Stepman:

“Sorry I have no patience for people continually surprised by what’s going on in Columbia and across university campuses like what did you think would happen when you turned over the entire educational apparatus over to people who hate this country? They were pretty clear in 1968.”

Several months ago Gallup noted that public esteem for universities was falling fast—even among Democrats, who run all of our universities. I wonder what the numbers would look like if Gallup updated this poll today.

Chaser—One of Iowahawk’s classics, from 2015, playing out now at Columbia:

Add this sensible suggestion:

Posted on by Scott Johnson in Corporate America, Hamas, Law

A word from Obama’s wingman

We haven’t heard much from Barack Obama about the 10/7 massacre or Iran’s missile assault on Israel. Former Obama wingman Eric Holder gives us a taste of what we are missing in the Washington Free Beacon story “Eric Holder Says Columbia’s Campus Agitators Have ‘Legitimate Concerns.'”

Both Obama and Holder are Columbia alumni. Collin notes the contradiction between Holder’s defense of the pro-Hamas campers at Columbia and the stated position of the Covington & Burling law firm, where he is senior counsel charging up to $2295 an hour for “racial equity audits”:

Holder’s defense of the Columbia protesters, who were violating university policy and shouting anti-Semitic slogans including “Globalize the intifada” and “NYPD, KKK, IDF, you’re all the same,” does not square with his law firm Covington & Burling’s decision late last year to sign a letter, along with dozens of white shoe firms, expressing zero-tolerance for the disruptive, anti-Semitic protests taking place on college and law school campuses across the country.

“As employers who recruit from each of your law schools, we look to you to ensure your students who hope to join our firms after graduation are prepared to be an active part of workplace communities that have zero tolerance policies for any form of discrimination or harassment, much less the kind that has been taking place on some law school campuses,” the letter stated.

Chants calling for “the death of Jews and the elimination of the state of Israel,” Covington and other firms said, are “anti-Semitic activities” that “would not be tolerated at any of our firms.”

Neither Holder nor Covington & Burling responded to Collin’s request for comment. On that point will have to fill in the blanks yourself.

The Free Beacon story concludes with this disclosure:

The Washington Free Beacon is a Covington & Burling client. But the firm, which once represented the Free Beacon in matters of defamation and employment, no longer does so after Covington partner Lindsay Burke and Of Counsel Jason Criss cited a conflict of interest given their discomfort with the Free Beacon’s coverage of Holder’s practice.

Neither Burke nor Criss responded to a request for comment regarding whether they share Holder’s view that the Columbia protesters have “legitimate concerns.”

With respect to “the Free Beacon’s coverage of Holder’s practice,” the disclosure links to a July 2023 story by Aaron Sibarium: “Starbucks Hired Eric Holder To Conduct a ‘Civil Rights Audit.’ The Policies He Blessed Got the Coffee Maker Sued.” It may be for the best that the Free Beacon and Covington & Burling have gone their separate ways, at least on defamation and employment issues.

Posted on by Scott Johnson in Anti-Semitism, Hamas, Higher education, Israel

Extension, Columbia style

The pro-Hamas kill the Jews crowd in the Gaza Solidarity Encampment at the heart of campus has received an extension. Not to get the campers’ term papers in, of course, but rather to vacate the encampment at the heart of the campus. The encampment is unauthorized and was supposed to be removed days ago. Columbia President Minouche Shafik then set a deadline of this morning at 8:00 a.m. She has now granted a further 48-hour extension.

After that, the boom may or may not be lowered. Shafik says she’s making progress with the pro-Hamas campers. However, the Columbia chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine says it’s not standing down until there is “a written commitment that the administration will not be unleashing the NYPD or the National Guard on its students.” Who ya gonna believe?

In any event, it’s past time to call Ghostbusters. Shafik has canceled in-person classes as a result of serious safety issues related to the campers. The order that makes education possible must be restored. Shafik is conflicted. She must sympathize with the kill the Jews crowd among students and faculty, yet she knows Columbia is disgracing itself under her “leadership” among alumni, friends and supporters, and decent Americans throughout the country.

Shafik’s ambivalence is on display in the case of Aida Parisi. The Washington Free Beacon’s Collin Anderson reports:

For more than two weeks, Columbia University graduate student Aidan Parisi has defied the university’s suspension, refusing to vacate his dorm room on the school’s Manhattan campus.

The school announced Parisi’s suspension on April 4 following his participation in a pro-Hamas event. And while Columbia leaders have pledged to enforce the suspension, they have yet to follow through. In the meantime, Parisi has contributed to the mayhem that has engulfed the campus over the past several days, serving as a leader of the unauthorized encampment zone that has plagued the school for days.

Parisi has tweeted daily from what he calls Columbia’s “Gaza Solidarity Camp,” located on the university’s south lawn. Student activists set up the camp last week as Columbia president Minouche Shafik testified before Congress on the school’s response to campus anti-Semitism.

One day later, Shafik authorized the New York City Police Department to arrest students who had ignored warnings to leave the area and who were protesting in violation of university policy. But Parisi avoided arrest and went on to organize a “second camp” where students have remained ever since.

Parisi has emerged as a ringleader of student activists, leading chants such as, “Columbia, we see you, you imprison children too.” He’s used his social media account to solicit supplies for his “amazing comrades,” including blankets, tarps, and coffee.

Whole thing here (and all of it is of interest). As usual, the New York Post cuts through the fog on its cover today (below).

Posted on April 23, 2024 by John Hinderaker in 2024 Election, Crime, Democrats, Donald Trump

A Prosecution In Search of a Crime

Donald Trump is undergoing a criminal trial in Manhattan. He is charged with filing corporate records that included a false statement; namely, that payments to Michael Cohen that were described as being for legal services were, in fact, to reimburse Cohen for making one or more payments to Stormy Daniels in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. But those payments to Daniels were perfectly legal, and filing a false corporate document is a misdemeanor on which the statute of limitation has passed.

So in order to charge Trump, District Attorney Alvin Bragg had to allege that the false documents were filed in order to cover up another crime. That would make it a felony. But what is that other crime? Bragg has been coy about it. In truth, there was no other crime, and Bragg’s prosecution is election interference on behalf of the Democratic Party, plain and simple.

One would think that this case could not have gone to trial without a clear specification of that other crime and evidence in support of it. But that appears to be what has happened, courtesy of trial judge Juan Merchan, who is in on the scam.

Byron York points out this classic of obfuscation from the prosecutor’s opening statement:


Which means what, exactly? I suppose the translation is that Trump didn’t want voters to know about his fling with Daniels. But an “illegal conspiracy to undermine the integrity of a presidential election” does not define a crime. The “hush money” payment was legal, not illegal. And Trump’s desire that voters not know about his relationship with Daniels was no different from Biden’s desire, in the 2020 election, to prevent voters from learning that he was senile. Both candidates wanted to conceal something from voters, but neither candidate committed a felony to do it.

This is not actually hard to grasp, but reporters are commenting breathlessly on the trial as though there were something of substance to it. There isn’t. But if you want to talk about a “conspiracy to undermine the integrity of a presidential election,” one is unfolding before our eyes in a Manhattan courtroom.

Posted on by John Hinderaker in Democrats, Minnesota

“I know I did something bad”

The Democrats hold a one-vote majority in Minnesota’s state Senate. They used that advantage to pass an unprecedented barrage of far-left legislation in the 2023 session. Their skinny majority is now in jeopardy, however, because a DFL senator has been arrested for burglary.

This account is from a local news outlet in Alexandria, Minnesota:

A state senator from Woodbury, Minnesota has now been charged with burglary for breaking into her stepmother’s home in Detroit Lakes.

Nicole Mitchell, 49, told police that she broke into the house to retrieve some of her late father’s belongings, including his ashes.
***
Mitchell was dressed all in black and wearing a black hat, the complaint said. The officer said he discovered a flashlight near her that was covered with a black sock, apparently modified to control the amount of light coming from it.

The complaint, filed in Becker County District Court in Detroit Lakes, charges Mitchell with one count of first-degree burglary, a felony.

“I know I did something bad,” the complaint quoted Mitchell as saying after she was told of her right to remain silent.

The state senator broke in through a basement window and apparently stole her stepmother’s laptop, among other things, before being apprehended:

The senator acknowledged that she had entered the house through a basement window that had been propped open with a black backpack, the complaint said. Officers found her Minnesota Senate ID inside it, along with her driver’s license, two laptop computers, a cellphone and Tupperware containers, the complaint said. She indicated that she got caught soon after entering.

“Clearly I’m not good at this,” it quoted her as saying.

I suppose we should be glad to learn that one of our state senators doesn’t have a lot of experience as a burglar. Here’s the point, though: Republicans have called on Mitchell to resign. That would lead to a special election, which, if won by the GOP candidate, would flip control of the Senate. The Democrats’ leadership is determined to avoid any loss of power, so Mitchell is now changing her story. She put out this statement an hour or two ago:


The idea that Mitchell broke into her stepmother’s house via a basement window at 4:45 a.m. to carry out a wellness check is laughable. It is worth noting, in that context, that the stepmother says she is afraid of Mitchell and has applied for a restraining order against her.

This situation, and especially Mitchell’s just-issued statement, have been a source of local hilarity. Walter Hudson is a GOP representative and a rising star in the party:


My interpretation of these events is that the leadership of the DFL Party has decided to brazen it out. True, the facts are not good, and Mitchell’s admissions that she “did something bad” and “[is] not good at this” are hard to work around, as are the break-in and the stolen laptop. The arresting officers had body cams, and I am pretty certain those videos will not put Senator Mitchell in an innocent light.

But to Democrats, power is everything. They apparently don’t mean to give it up without a fight.

Instead of resigning, Mitchell apparently intends to continue voting. I am not sure whether she is still in the local jail in northern Minnesota, but the Democrats have, post-covid, adopted rules that permit remote voting, so that senators and representatives never actually have to be present in the Capitol. And some of them never show up. If Mitchell tries to vote from jail, it will test the limits of the Democrats’ new rules.

Behind the entertainment value of this bizarre episode is a deadly serious reality. Mitchell has two years to go on her term. If a special election puts that seat in Republican hands, control of the Senate will flip. That won’t enable the Republicans to do anything good, but it will allow them to stop the bleeding as Democrats propose one appalling bill after another. That, of course, is what we hope for.

Stay tuned.