The odds in an odd year

This piece by Tod Lindberg in the Washingtion Times provides a sensible analysis of the Bush-Kerry race. Among the reasonable points Lindberg makes are the following: (1) the election will likely occur in the following context: “the economy continues to grow strongly and create some new jobs; Iraq continues to make bumpy progress; and still no WMD”; (2) “with a strong economy and an increasingly functional Iraq, Mr. Bush should have no great difficulty in reminding voters about their security concerns by addressing what he has done to keep Americans safe. That gives him the edge”; (3) “Mr. Bush has seen some erosion in his ratings for trustworthiness, clearly a no-WMD depression. This is serious. If Mr. Bush does lose in November, I think that underlying it will be a sense of unease about a leader who has taken the country to war on the basis of a mistaken or misstated casus belli”; (4) “it looks quite likely that we’ll have closely divided blue states and red states [election] again.”
Lindberg sees the odds of a Bush triumph at 3-2. That’s about how I view them, although Rocket Man is close to persuading me that the odds aren’t that good.

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