The Pew Research Center has President Bush up by a 49-44 margin among “likely voters”. The Washington Post also has Bush up by five percentage points (51-46, with one percent for Nader) among such voters. However, the Post has Bush leading by only three points among all registered voters.
HINDROCKET adds: I don’t usually steal from InstaPundit because, well, you don’t need us to tell you what Glenn is saying. But tonight he quoted an emailer, Daniel Moore, who made such a great point that I can’t resist passing it on:
I suspect that the best way to tell if Kerry picked anything up from the debate is if he starts spending money in any of those swing states that he had pulled ads from.
That is a truly great point. Gallup, not to mention Newsweek, has been doing some odd stuff lately. But the candidates’ polls are the ones that they believe are accurate, and the ones they base their tactical decisions on.
Glenn goes on to note that the Kerry campaign has now abandoned Virginia and shifted the money to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Not exactly a sign of surging momentum.