Electability and ideology
The four leading Republican presidential contenders fall into one of two categories. The first category consists of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Both run pretty well against Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls, but both deviate from the views of most conservatives on several major issues. The second category consists of Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Both espouse nearly all of the positions to which most conservatives subscribe, but neither runs close to Clinton is the polls.
It seems reasonable for conservatives trying to decide among these candidates to begin the selection process by determining whether to give priority to electability or ideology. We can then pick among the two candidates in the preferred category based on factors like experience, leadership, and demonstrated administrative ability. If the choice is between McCain and Giuliani, conservatives can also decide based on which deviations from conservative orthodoxy seem least offensive.
The drawbacks of selecting a candidate based on electability are well recognized. To begin with, voters who feel very strongly the issues, or even one issue such as abortion, are justifiably loath to allow political calculation to dictate their choice. Moreover, political calculation is sufficiently difficult that those who base their choice on it can easily outsmart themselves. Polls pitting Republican contenders against Hillary Clinton a year before the general election may not be reliable. For one thing, they likely overstate the gap between the electability of well-known candidates like Giuliani and lesser known candidates like Romney.
In addition, it’s impossible to know right now whether the general election will be close. It may be that any of the four major Republicans will prove more popular than Clinton. In that case, Republicans will regret nominating their third choice candidate. On the other hand, it may turn out that no Republican can defeat Clinton. In that scenario, the consequences of nominating one’s third choice, though less severe, may still be considerable. For example, anti-abortion Republicans will lament that the party “brand” has been harmed if Giuliani is the nominee.
But it’s also possible to outsmart oneself by selecting a candidate based on ideology. That’s because perceived ideological differences among candidates may be more apparent than real. This risk seems particularly pronounced in this year’s Republican race.
Consider Giuliani and Romney. Giuliani is running as a center-right candidate and Romney as a pure conservative. But as executives of major Northeastern entities, there was little difference between them. Both were moderate to liberal on key social issues, and moderate to conservative on most other matters. Both were pro-choice and both were far from hostile to illegal immigrants in their jurisdiction. Both even supported at least one Democrat during the 1990s – Giuliani backed Governor Cuomo in 1994; Romney voted for Paul Tsongas in the 1992 primary.
Now consider McCain and Thompson. In this pairing, McCain seems to be the center-right option and Thompson the conservative. But the two were very closely aligned from 1994-2002 when Thompson held elected office. In fact, Thompson backed McCain’s major deviation from conservative principles during this period – the McCain-Feingold campaign reform measure.
Romney and Thompson are now positioned to the right of Giuliani and McCain. But is this the result of real ideological divergence, or of political calculation on the part of the former pair? The more one thinks that political calculation is playing a role, the more tempting it is to let electability be one’s guide.
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