Many micro-arguments are raging over the details of climate alarmists’ claims, some of which are interesting and important. But it is important not to lose sight of the big picture: what, as best we can reconstruct it, is the true history of Earth’s climate over the last several millennia? The answer to this question is shrouded in uncertainty, but recent research suggests that in Northern Europe, at least, the history of the last 2,000 years has mostly been one of cooling. The Science and Environmental Policy Project reports:
A new study based on tree rings taken in Lapland reports that Northern Europe has been generally cooling for 2000 years. After the hockey-stick debacle, no doubt many will express skepticism. However, it appears the researchers did not run the data through a computer model that imparts a bias. The temperature variations show the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warming Period warmer than today. The graphs also show 20th century warming with a decline starting about 1940 and a subsequent late century rise but remaining below the temperatures of the 1930s. Prior temperature variations are unrelated to carbon dioxide. The explanation for the 2000 year cooling trend is a slight change in the earth’s orbit. No doubt, this research will be a topic of controversy. This general cooling since the Roman Warmer Period is consistent with Greenland ice cores and other data.
Most people do not understand how bad the data are, on which the IPCC and other alarmist groups rely. In order to draw sound conclusions, it is first necessary to reason from reliable data. The alarmists, who mostly control access to the data, have gone to great lengths to make this difficult.