Coronavirus numbers from three key states

The acceleration in the number of reported cases and deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. has been driven to a considerable degree by infections in three states: Arizona, Florida, and Texas. Thus, it makes sense to take a closer look at the numbers from these states. (Unless otherwise indicated by a link, all data cited below are from Worldometer.)

Before diving in, it’s important to note that per capita deaths from the virus in these states are nowhere near the levels of New York and New Jersey, and there is almost no chance that they will ever approach those levels. Yet, Gov. Cuomo has been lionized for his approach to combating the virus in New York, while the Republican governors of Arizona, Florida, and Texas are depicted as dunces by the mainstream media.

Per capita deaths attributed to the coronavirus in New York are 1,681 per one million. In New Jersey, they are slightly higher.

In Arizona, there have been 468 deaths per one million attributed to the virus, about the national average. In Florida, the number is 285. In Texas, it is 203.

There have, though, been significant increases in coronavius cases and deaths in these three states. Let’s examine the numbers.

In Arizona, there was a massive surge in reported cases in June. At the beginning of the month, there were only about 1,000 new cases per day. By the end of the month, there were about 4,000.

Predictably, the increase in new cases in June corresponded to an increase in deaths attributed to the virus in July. Early in the month, there were about 50 per day. By the middle of the months, that number had about tripled.

The good news is that the number of new reported cases in Arizona has started to decline — from about 4,000 per day at the beginning of July to about 3,000 per day now. Inpatient hospitalizations have also been declining. Deaths per day, which have held pretty steady since the middle of the month, will likely decline in August due to the drop in new cases in July.

Florida’s spike in new cases began a little later than Arizona’s. The number of new cases rose steadily in June, but didn’t spike until the end of the month. At that time, it reached the 10,000 a day mark.

Things got even worse in early July. By the middle of the month, Florida was reporting anywhere from 13,000 to 15,000 new cases some days. As the month ends, the number has declined a little to around 12,000.

Because Florida’s peak occurred after Arizona’s, the number of deaths per day attributed to the virus hasn’t started to decrease appreciably. At the beginning of the month, Florida was reporting fewer than 100 deaths per day. By mid-month, it was reporting 130 to 150.

On July 23, the number peaked at 173. It dropped during the next few days, but reached 186 yesterday. Hospitalizations for the virus also reached a record number yesterday — 585.

With the number of new reported cases per day in Florida declining slightly, it seems likely that the number of deaths per day attributed to the virus will decline next month.

Texas experienced a sharp rise in reported new cases per day throughout June and into July. At the beginning of June, there were few more than 1,000 reported cases per day — an excellent result considering the size of the state. But by the end of the month, there were around 7,500 new cases per day, and by mid-July there were more than 10,000 on most days, with a peak of 12,490 on July 15.

Since then, the number has fallen pretty dramatically to under 7,500 most days.

Deaths per day attributed to the virus in Texas reached their peak last week at more than 200. That’s about five times as many as Texas was reporting at the beginning of June. But over the past few days, the number has fallen off considerably. Hospitalizations for the virus in Texas reportedly hit a record high on Sunday, however.

Nonetheless, like Arizona and Florida, Texas seems to be turning the corner. If the situation in these states continues to improve, so too will the national numbers — provided, of course, that things don’t take serious turns for the worse elsewhere in this very big country of ours.

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