Rasmussen has some interesting data on that question. First, the good news: most people agree with the Dobbs decision:
One year after the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, so that each state can now determine its own laws regarding abortion, a majority of voters approve the decision.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of the court overturning Roe v. Wade, including 37% who Strongly Approve. Forty-four percent (44%) disapprove, including 36% who Strongly Disapprove of the decision.
That is fine as far as it goes. But Dobbs, which was plainly correct as a matter of constitutional law, was electoral poison not because it was opposed by a majority, but because it motivated the Democrats’ base to get out and vote, quelling what would otherwise have been a red wave.
And the abortion issue may do that again:
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters believe the issue of abortion rights will be important in the 2024 presidential election, including nearly half (49%) who think it will be Very Important. Only 21% don’t think the abortion issue will be important in next year’s election.
And, of course, it is above all the Democrats who see abortion as a key 2024 issue:
Perhaps foreshadowing a key issue for the 2024 campaign, more Democrats (85%) than Republicans (73%) or unaffiliated voters (69%) think abortion rights will be at least somewhat important in next year’s presidential election, with a solid majority (63%) of Democrats saying the issue will be Very Important.
Pro-choice voters consider the abortion issue more important than do those who support the Supreme Court’s decision. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the court overturning Roe v. Wade, 79% believe the issue of abortion rights will be Very Important in the 2024 presidential election, compared to just 36% of those who Strongly Approve of last year’s Supreme Court ruling.
It doesn’t make much sense to say that abortion will be a major issue in the presidential election, since Dobbs returned the issue to the states. Nevertheless, like last year, it is the pro-choice voters who think abortion is a key electoral issue, while voters who approve of Dobbs tend not to see it as an issue–another motivational mismatch.
There is another factor, too. This poll asked about abortion as a 2024 issue, but the more salient issue could turn out to be the Supreme Court. Historically, judicial appointments and the Supreme Court have been issues that favored Republicans. This is because the liberal judicial activism that characterized the Warren Court and the succeeding generation was generally unpopular. Conservatives were fired up about the Court because liberals were winning cases, while liberals were generally complacent.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Conservatives are winning big cases: Dobbs, Harvard and UNC, student loan forgiveness, and the just-decided 303 Creative case which pitted freedom of conscience against LGBTQ tyranny. While abortion may or may not be much of a national issue in 2024, the Supreme Court will be. Liberals are fired up about these and other decisions, and for the first time in a long while, the federal courts will likely be an issue that helps Democrats rather than Republicans.
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