Stuart Rothenberg runs the numbers

Stuart Rothenberg runs the numbers and concludes that unless the dynamic changes dramatically, the Democrats can’t retake the House. Among other things, his analysis highlights the importance of our friend John Kline’s race in Minnesota’s 2nd. He also agrees with Deacon that Connie Morella will probably be defeated, but thinks she still has a chance. In at least one instance, I think Rothenberg’s analysis is too favorable to the Democrats. Crediting recent poll numbers, he gives Stephanie Herseth the edge over ex-Governor Bill Janklow in South Dakota. I will have to see this to believe it; Janklow has been the most popular politician in South Dakota for the last twenty years, and has done nothing to forfeit that popularity. I don’t believe he can be beaten by a Democratic rookie.

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