Here come Gratz and Grutter

As early as Monday next week the Supreme Court will issue its decisions in the Gratz and Grutter affirmative action cases against the University of Michigan. The guys over at No Left Turns are going out on a limb making educated guesses about the outcome of the cases. Click here for Steve Hayward’s pessimistic prediction, click here for Robert Alt’s qualifiedly optimistic prediction, and click here for Lucas Morel’s extremely interesting, mostly optimistic prediction.
Our reader Dafydd ab Hugh has also written to share his own characteristically unguarded prediction with us. Here goes: “I predict that the Court decision will be noticibly more just and rational than most everybody else predicts: that is, it will not simply reiterate Bakke — racial discrimination is acceptable if it’s “narrowly tailored” because racial diversity is “a compelling state interest” — and will go farther than merely saying that the U of M programs are not narrowly enough tailored; she may say, for example, that all programs to address past racial discrimination have a “sunset clause” that ends them automatically when a certain goal, short of exact racial proportions, is reached… say, when a study by the university fails to turn up a pattern of racial discrimination against those minorities being benefited by the programs. Something that would stop most “affirmative action” in its tracks, as clearly there is no anti-black discrimination going on at major universities.
“I also predict there will be at least one pleasant surprise from one of the justices… either O’Connor will openly say that racial diversity is not a compelling state interest absent a continuing history of racial discrimination, and that racial parity alone is not sufficient for a program; or else Stevens will shift to join the majority striking down the programs (even if, in Stevens’ case, he does go for Bakke Lite, which would still be a startling position for him to take).
“The reasons for my prediction: because I have an infinite capacity to believe that eventually, rational and logical people will wake up and start acting rationally and logically… and because at her core, I believe that Sandra Day O’Connor is a rational person who is repelled by racial discrimination without end.
“In either case, my prediction is that you all will be pleasantly surprised after the ruling is announced and the decisions released (I predict that there will be at least five decisions). Fingers crossed, and here we go!”
Deacon, it’s over to you!

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