For some time, the conventional wisdom has been that the Republicans will increase their margin in the Senate in November. This is based mostly on the fact that there will be five previously-Democratic seats up for grabs in the South. The problem for Republicans, however, is that there are a number of races in generally Republican states like Alaska, Colorado and South Dakota where the Democrat is currently favored.
Fred Barnes argues in the Weekly Standard that the Democrats have a shot at a Senate takeover. His conclusion:
So here’s the bottom line as of today: Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate, but Democrats have a real shot at an upset, which wasn’t the case only a few months ago. And remember: Campaigns often tilt to one party or the other in the final weeks. In 2002, the tilt was to Republicans. In 2004, Democrats are positioned to take back the Senate if the tilt goes their way.
I still think the most likely result is a Republican gain of a seat or two, but holding the Senate is no longer a sure thing.