This morning, RNC chief Ken Mehlman summed up the poll data that show a nationwide trend toward Republican candidates. The most familiar figures are the 8%, 7% and 6% the GOP has gained in the most recent ABC/Post, Pew and Gallup polls, respectively. But Mehlman highlights much more data that are encouraging for Republicans.
Which, understandably, is making the Democrats nervous. See, for example, The New Republic’s The Plank:
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats’ 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it’s not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats’ advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn’t going to get the job done.
I still think the Democrats will do reasonably well, but their gains are shaping up as relatively modest for a sixth-year election.