National approval/disapproval polls have shown President Obama consistently under water for some time, but the numbers are even worse when viewed state by state. Liberals–generally speaking, Obama’s last defenders–are heavily concentrated in a few large states; in fact, within certain urban areas in those states. When those states are taken out of the picture, the result is truly bleak for Obama and the Democrats.
The NY Times/YouGov poll breaks down the numbers in each state. This likely voter survey ended on October 1; I suspect Obama’s numbers have declined since then. Click to enlarge:
Phil Kerpen put these data into this easy to follow format:
Outside of a handful of states–California (49/48), New York (50/47), Massachusetts (50/47), Maryland, which benefits from the D.C. boom (56/43)–the numbers are brutal. Even blue states like Minnesota (40/57) and Oregon (44/54) have had it with Obama. And in his last redoubts, California et al., Obama is not much more than breaking even.
This is one basic reason why, as Jake Tapper reports, “even some Democratic operatives struggle to imagine a scenario where they retain control of the U.S. Senate.” The president is an “albatross” around Senate Democrats’ necks.
Currently, a number of Republican Senate candidates are under-running voters’ dissatisfaction with the Obama administration. But that dissatisfaction makes it likely that undecided voters will break against Democratic candidates rather than in their favor. This election won’t be what it could have been, but for now, it is shaping up well for Republicans.