Minnesota’s nursing home crisis deepened yesterday, with 16 of the 19 new deaths attributed to the COVID-19 epidemic occurring among residents of long-term care facilities. The new death numbers amplify the point I have made repeatedly in this series. The epidemic represents a mortal threat mostly to the elderly with significant underlying conditions among the residents of nursing homes and assisted-care facilities. Well over two-thirds of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Minnesota have occurred in this specific subpopulation.
The death total attributed to the virus has escalated to 179. The median age of decedents is 83.
Minnesota Department of Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm provided the demographic profile of the 19 new decedents at yesterday’s daily briefing with Governor Walz and others: two in their 90’s, 8 in their 80’s, 7 in their 70’s, one in his or her 60’s, and one in his or her 50’s (“with significant underlying conditions”).
Does the state need to be locked down to protect this subpopulation? That is one question that wasn’t asked at yesterday’s briefing. The speakers all celebrated the state’s “breakthrough for rapid, widespread testing of COVID-19 in Minnesota” as they “launched a statewide testing strategy to test all symptomatic people, isolate confirmed cases, and expand public health surveillance tools.” Increased testing and contact tracing is “to help improve control of this pandemic and support the safe re-opening of society…”
Backslapping and self-congratulation were the order of the day. The testing is to ease our return to normal, though Walz remains vaguely noncommittal about what he will do when his shutdown order expires on May 4.
The University of Minnesota’s Michael Osterholm was among those who spoke at the briefing yesterday. Osterholm is the former state epidemiologist. He has a distinguished record in public health and is knee-deep in the state’s approach to the epidemic. Osterholm spoke to praise the governor and tout the testing program along with the other guests, but observed that no more than five percent of Minnesotans have been exposed to the virus so far. He assured us that the level of exposure would reach 60-70 percent in due course. He advised that Minnesotans “need to take this seriously.”
I don’t know anyone who’s not “taking this seriously.” Osterholm’s message about the course of the epidemic nevertheless belies the gist of Walz’s daily briefings, which implies that our current sacrifice is necessary to suppress the spread and save lives later. I “seriously” doubt that Minnesotans understand the present devastation is intended only to string things out for some hypothetical benefit later. We have empty beds and excess capacity in our health care system. What are we waiting for? Someone needs to “take this seriously,” but it’s not Osterholm’s presumed audience among the great unwashed.
The current shutdown is devastating the state’s health care system and economy generally. The number of those hospitalized in intensive care with the virus actually decreased yesterday, from 117 to 107. Commenting on part 18 of this series yesterday, a reader wrote: “I am an RN at a hospital in St. Paul and I had my last two shifts cancelled because my unit was overstaffed. I was just sitting at home not working at the hospital in this supposed “crisis” in health care. There is no way we can be more prepared now for treating patients. The justification to ‘flatten the curve’ past this point is doing more harm than good.”
A reader from rural Minnesota writes to pose a few more questions that weren’t asked at yesterday’s briefing: “I’ve been self-employed for years, but I have had basically no business the last six weeks. I’m pretty much out of money. I didn’t get the 1200 bucks because I’m behind on child support, but I applied for unemployment and haven’t heard anything except that I’m denied…I don’t have any money. Please do a story on people like me. The government shut us down and even if they didn’t the news media and the government experts scared everybody away from doing any business anyway. How am I supposed to survive?”
My comments above reflect my notes on yesterday’s briefing along with the information accessible at the Minnesota Department of Health Situation Update. Video of the briefing is posted here. I urge interested readers to check it out.
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