How to tell we are in a recession

The White House is prepping the battlefield for next Thursday’s Commerce Department
estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth or contraction. Students of ancient history may recall that real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the most recent estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A second quarter of contraction would suggest that we are in a recession (a “full-employment recession,” according to James Piereson).

Anticipating that the estimate will show contraction, the White House Council of Economic Advisers seeks to deter use of the term “recession” by the Democrats’ mainstream media adjunct. The CEA has posted an advisory on the true meaning of “recession” here. Axios attributes it to Jared Bernstein and Cecilia Rouse.

I take it Bernstein and Rouse have a pretty good idea of the forthcoming Commerce Department estimate. FOX News White House reporter Jacqui Heinrich excerpts their CEA post in the tweet below.

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