Economy
June 2, 2018 — John Hinderaker
On top of yesterday’s jobs report–so good that it had Nancy Pelosi mumbling that “strong employment numbers mean little”–the Atlanta Fed now estimates 2nd quarter GDP growth at an annualized rate of 4.8%. This is based in part on private fixed investment growth rising at a 5.4% rate. As CNBC notes, “the biggest job gainers have been groups that have historically suffered from stubbornly high levels of unemployment, including younger
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June 1, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Yesterday, President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. These U.S. allies promptly hit back. The EU said it would impose import taxes on, among other items, bourbon (this means you, Mitch McConnell). Mexico said it would levy tariffs on American farm products. Canada is set to impose tariffs on dozens of U.S. products including not just steel and aluminum products but also
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April 17, 2018 — Steven Hayward
If you’re an old-timer like me, cast your mind back to the tax reform of 1986, which was passed on a bipartisan basis, because Democrats understood the logic of tax simplification and cutting rates down to a lower level with a broader base. There’s one detail everyone has forgotten that is relevant today: President Reagan’s initial tax reform proposal included elimination the state and local income tax deduction. Pro-tax reform
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March 23, 2018 — Steven Hayward
A trade war with China? As it happens, I spent some time early in the week with Steve Moore of the Heritage Foundation, who has been close to Trump and who, along with Trump’s new senior economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, helped fashion the tax reform bill recently enacted. He has shared with me a couple of times in recent months his private conversations with Trump on economic issues. Steve said
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March 9, 2018 — John Hinderaker
The news on the economic front continues to be excellent. The Labor Department’s February jobs number came in at 313,000, smashing all forecasts. In addition, jobs numbers for both December and January were upgraded. The number of those employed surged in February by 785,000. The sectors where jobs increased the most are significant, too: Construction jobs led the way, with 61,000 new positions, followed by retail and professional and business
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March 7, 2018 — Steven Hayward
So Trump’s senior economic adviser, Gary Cohn, is resigning because of Trump’s announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs. The tariffs are likely a bad idea—unless you think Trump is merely making this move as part of his “art of the deal” strategy, and will end up with some trading partners altering their behavior and trading rules. Perhaps it will work out this way. It wouldn’t surprise me if it does.
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March 2, 2018 — Steven Hayward
Joseph Epstein wrote a terrific article in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week with the perfect headline: “The Only Good Thing About Trump Is All His Policies.” Just so. The Trump Administration has governed spectacularly in most respects, better than I had thought possible (until perhaps this week—more on that presently). It reminds me of the reverse of what my old mentor M. Stanton Evans used to say about
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January 23, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Veronique de Rugy suggests that the bonuses and pay raises granted by many employers right after the tax cut was signed into law might well have been coming even without the tax cut. The key to the increase in worker compensation, she proposes, is the very tight labor market. De Rugy quotes the Wall Street Journal: With the unemployment rate low and unfilled job openings high, losing workers to a
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January 22, 2018 — John Hinderaker
As they gear up for November’s Congressional election, the Democrats are peddling a fantasy view of events in America: Trump the racist, Trump the trampler on the First Amendment, Trump the warmonger (or something), Trump-Russia collusion, the Republicans as servants of the rich. To an even greater degree than usual, this election will feature a head-on collision between such fantasies and reality. The reality is that the Trump administration’s policies
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January 20, 2018 — Steven Hayward
We’ve seen already the news of the growing number of companies citing the corporate tax cut as the trigger to give bonuses, raises, and announcements of significant new domestic capital investment, which is ruining the Democrats’ day. Wait till they get a load of this news, from the Wall Street Journal this morning: Less-Educated Workers See Biggest Weekly Pay Bumps Americans with only a high-school diploma are seeing faster earnings
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January 18, 2018 — Scott Johnson
Has there ever been a quicker boost to the economy than the one we have experienced under President Trump over the past year? As Joel Kotkin puts it in this City Journal column: “New job numbers are robust, GDP and wages continue to rise, stocks are soaring, unemployment continues to decline, and overall growth is at its highest in 13 years. And this salutary picture is not exclusive to big
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January 17, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Joel Kotkin asks, “Can the Trump Economy Trump Trump?” In other words, will our strong economy enable Republicans to prevail electorally notwithstanding the unpopularity of President Trump? John raised this question during the session we did last week for our VIP subscribers. He recalled the time, not long ago at all, when political scientists could successfully predict the outcome of presidential races based primarily on a few economic indicators. Can
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January 17, 2018 — John Hinderaker
CNBC’s Twitter feed sums up Apple’s announcement on its intention to expand operations in the U.S. in the wake of the GOP’s tax reform. BREAKING: Apple says it will contribute more than $350 billion over the next five years to the US economy through investments, will add "over 20,000 new jobs through hiring at existing campuses and opening a new one"https://t.co/vb0JiOg9hP — CNBC (@CNBC) January 17, 2018 Over 20,000 new
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January 11, 2018 — Steven Hayward
Further to my post earlier today about how the corporate tax cut is extending benefits immediately to workers and consumers, Yahoo finance has put together a rundown of the 81 companies that have announced bonuses or new employee benefits because of the tax change: But never forget—Nancy Pelosi says the tax bill will bring on “the Apocalypse.” (Maybe she meant the Apocalypse for Democrats??) P.S. Oh by the way, the
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January 11, 2018 — Steven Hayward
Anyone remember the early 1990s when the Clinton Administration discovered to its horror that it couldn’t spend like the horny drunken sailors we know them to have been because the bond market would instantly punish the economy? James Carville famously said that if he was reincarnated, he wanted to come back to earth as the bond market. Hold that thought in mind as we survey the current economic scene a
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January 8, 2018 — Steven Hayward
The American Economic Association just wrapped up its annual meeting in Philadelphia, and one of the panels was devoted to the issue of the economic effects of teachers’ unions. Get a load of the abstract from this paper from two Cornell University economists presented at the panel: The Long-run Effects of Teacher Collective Bargaining Michael Lovenheim, Alexander Willen, Cornell University Abstract Teacher collective bargaining is a highly debated feature of
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December 26, 2017 — Paul Mirengoff
Robert Schlesinger, managing editor for opinion at U.S. News & World Report, calls 2017 “a dumpster fire of a year, especially for those who reside and operate in the world of politics and policy.” Who, he asks, will mourn its passing? Only a fool would mourn the turning over of the calendar in any year. But, as Roger Kimball demonstrates, folks who reside and operate in the real world can
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