Looking for tea leaves to read in advance of the midterm elections this coming Tuesday, I turn to the results of Quinnipiac’s national poll released yesterday (press release here, full results here). Quinnipiac must be something of a joke. It polled “2,203 U.S. adults” from October 26-30 with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. The survey included 2,010 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.”
Quinnipiac is apparently unable to distinguish likely voters from registered voters. I believe the results understate the strength of the results for Republicans. Republicans are more likely to vote because they are more motivated, according to the Quinnipiac results, and because their issues align more closely with those important to independent voters. That is my takeaway. (I was unable to reach either Quinnipiac poll analyst Tim Malloy or associate vice president Doug Schwartz this morning regarding the poll.)
The poll results are perhaps most interesting in demonstrating the movement toward Republicans. Quinnipiac buries this finding under the heading of Control of Congress:
Among registered voters, if the election were today, 48 percent say they would want to see the Republican Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 44 percent say the Democratic Party.
This is a shift from a Quinnipiac University poll on August 31st when 47 percent said the Democratic Party and 43 percent said the Republican Party.
As for which party registered voters would want to see win control of the United States Senate, 48 percent say the Republican Party and 45 percent say the Democratic Party.
This compares to August when 47 percent said the Democratic Party and 45 percent said the Republican Party.
That is a movement of 5-8 points toward the Republicans. As I say, however, it is understated. Moreover, it will continue to November 8.
Quinnipiac reports that abortion (10 percent) ranks as the second most urgent issue with no other issue reaching double digits. Among independents, abortion is statistically indistinguishable from a panoply of other feel good and goo-goo issues. Inflation (36 percent) comes in first with a bullet. It is up 9 points since August.
How’s Slow Joe doing? “Americans give President Joe Biden a negative job approval rating as 36 percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 53 percent disapprove. Among registered voters, President Biden receives a negative 37-54 percent job approval rating.” He’s descending to George W. Bush territory at the time of the financial meltdown.
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