I watched last night’s GOP presidential debate in its entirety, mostly because I commented on it on television as soon as it was over. I have no idea what the ratings were, or whether the event will move the political needle at all, but here are my observations:
* It was a good night for the GOP. The debate format works much better now that we are down to five more or less serious candidates. Everyone had a full opportunity to be heard, and differences among the candidates began to emerge. I thought all five candidates did pretty well in appealing to their various constituencies.
* I still think the serious contenders are Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Both performed well last night. DeSantis shines when he talks about policy, and especially his record in Florida. Haley is drawing increasing support, in part because many see her as the most electable candidate. One thing that is coming into focus is that Haley is the most “neocon” of the group. She emphasizes foreign policy and is an unequivocal supporter of our participation in the wars in both Ukraine and Israel.
* Chris Christie began the primary process as the anti-Trump. It always seemed obvious that there is no path to victory for a candidate who defines himself by his distaste for Trump, and Christie has now dropped that theme. He barely mentioned Trump last night. Christie is an able guy, and he performs well in a debate format, but I still don’t see him as a serious contender for the nomination.
* Vivek Ramaswamy is the outlier in the group. He goes over the top, attacks fellow Republicans freely, and was booed more than once last night. The candidates are united in their support for Israel, but Vivek is the only one who is openly hostile to our role in Ukraine. While I don’t think he has a chance at the nomination, he is remarkably popular among young conservatives, largely because of his isolationist bent.
* Tim Scott is a values candidate. In that regard, he somewhat resembles Mike Pence, not in the earlier green-eyeshade phase of Pence’s career, but in more recent years. My guess is that Scott has a lot of good will both with Republican voters and with his fellow candidates, so that it would not be surprising to see him as a vice-presidential selection. Assuming he wants that job.
* Does anyone consider it significant that three of the five top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination are non-white?
* I think that all of the candidates on last night’s stage, with the possible exception of Ramaswamy, would beat Joe Biden rather easily. I think the only Republican who likely would lose to Biden is Donald Trump. On the other hand, I also don’t think Biden will be the Democrats’ nominee.
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