Earlier this week, Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the presidential race. Unlike other recent dropouts — Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Michael Bloomberg — Warren hasn’t endorsed anyone for president yet.
Ideologically, Warren is more closely aligned with Bernie Sanders than with Joe Biden. However, it makes little sense for her to endorse Sanders.
For one thing, Sanders looks like a loser now. A good showing in Michigan would change that, but until he makes such a showing, Warren has little to gain by endorsing the socialist.
In addition, it’s unlikely that if Sanders wins, he would offer Warren a place on his ticket. Even an old socialist would probably want a ticket with regional and generational balance, and perhaps a bit more ideological balance than Warren would provide.
There may also be lingering animosity between Warren and Sanders. During a memorable debate not long ago, Warren essentially called Sanders a liar and then rejected his offer of a handshake.
What about endorsing Biden? That’s probably not the smart move either because, for reasons I hope will become clear, doing so might actually reduce her chances of becoming Biden’s running mate.
Does Warren have a realistic chance of being on the ticket with Biden? I think so.
There would be drawbacks to running with Warren, for sure. Warren has authenticity, honesty, and likability problems.
These wouldn’t be problems for Democrats in a crusade to defeat President Trump. However, they might hurt Biden at the margin with swing voters.
However, the problem would be more than offset if Warren’s presence on the ticket would keep Sanders’s supporters in the fold, or keep substantially more of them in the fold than, say, Amy Klobuchar’s presence would.
My guess is that Warren wouldn’t be of much use in this regard. The vast majority of Sanders’s supporters will likely fall in line and vote for Biden, as they did for Hillary Clinton four years ago. This will occur even if Biden declines to run with a far leftist. Tim Kaine is not a far leftist.
As for the not insubstantial number of Sanders supporters prone to defect, I doubt they would be swayed by the selection of Warren for the number two spot. For these folks — the most extreme of the extreme — Warren is pro-capitalism (by her own declaration) and an elitist. (Why, she wouldn’t even shake Sanders’s hand.) Indeed, Warren’s agreement to run with Biden would only confirm their dim view of her.
This is just my speculation, though. If Biden finishes off Sanders in the coming weeks, his team should try to gather data on the extent to which his pick for a running mate would affect his ability to win the votes of Sanders’s supporters.
It follows from my analysis that Warren should not endorse Biden? If I’m right that the case for Biden to pick Warren as his running mate rests on keeping Sanders’s supporters in the fold, then it would be a mistake for her to endorse Biden while Sanders is still fighting for the nomination.
An endorsement of Biden would enrage the Bernie Bros, something Warren cannot afford to do if she wants to maintain whatever credibility she has with the party’s far left wing. Moreover, if Biden is even thinking of using Warren to assuage Sanders’s most extreme supporters, he shouldn’t want her endorsement, unless Sanders makes a comeback in this race.
If Warren were to endorse Sanders, her credibility with his supporters would be enhanced. But that would be carrying the charade too far. Biden isn’t the presumptive nominee yet, so why risk boosting Sanders? And if/when Biden gains that status, it would be ridiculous for Warren to endorse his opponent.
Her best move, I think, is to remain neutral for as long as the race continues.
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