I have been saying all along that Joe Biden’s job approval numbers are inflated. There is no way that anything like 40 percent of voters observe what has happened over the last two years and say, “Great job, Joe!” I think his approval numbers are buoyed by Democrats who know he is a lousy president, but stick up for their party when a pollster calls.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll supports that hypothesis. It finds that only 35% of Democrats want Biden to be their party’s nominee in 2024.
That implies, I think, an overall approval rating of no more than 30 percent, which is one reason why the midterms are going to be a worse wipeout for Democrats than most now predict.
The Democrats’ preference for “someone else” is striking, but one of that party’s problems is that they don’t have anyone else. Gavin Newsom? Right. But that is a topic for another day.
On the Republican side, it looks like half are loyal to Donald Trump, a very good president who has been outrageously maligned and persecuted by the Democrats, the press, and the usual suspects. The other half are ready to move on, as I think partisans always should be when a candidate loses a national race. (Hillary in 2024? Bring it on!) That number will grow as less-engaged voters focus on terrific alternatives like Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, and perhaps Tom Cotton and others.
Based on this ABC/Post poll and others like it, along with common sense and the evidence of my own eyes, I think it is abundantly clear that Joe Biden will not be the Democrats’ nominee in 2024. The Democrats are desperately trying to get past the midterms, pretending that all is normal. Once November is behind us, their search for a successor will begin in earnest.
Likewise, I think that Donald Trump will not be–and to be clear, I think he should not be–the GOP nominee in 2024. Republicans are not in the same desperate trouble as Democrats, but we, too, need a fresh start. Donald Trump might be the only prominent Republican who could lose in 2024.