The state of the race

Featured image I’m aware of four polls of the presidential race conducted since the McClatchy/Marist survey that I wrote about here. Two of them have Donald Trump ahead: Rasmussen by 7 points and USC/LA Times by 3. One poll, CBS News/New York Times, has the race dead even. The other, Economist/YouGov, has Clinton ahead by 2 points. If one throws in the McClatchy survey (Clinton +3) and the two conflicting battleground state »

Polls suggest some improvement for Trump following Comey’s remarks

Featured image In the first poll I’ve seen that was taken after James Comey’s statement regarding the Clinton email scandal, McClatchy/Marist finds Clinton leading by 3 points, 42-39. McClatchy declares this a dramatic shrinkage of Clinton’s lead, saying it’s the first time Clinton’s support has come in at less than 50 percent. As far as I can tell, however, McClatchy/Marist hasn’t polled the race since late March. (Clinton’s lead was 9 points »

Poll: Majority wanted Hillary indicted

Featured image A Rasmussen poll finds that most voters disagree with FBI Director James Comey’s decision not to seek a criminal indictment of Hillary Clinton. The poll, taken the night Comey announced the decision, finds that 37 percent of likely voters agree with the FBI’s decision, but 54 percent disagree and believe the FBI should have sought a criminal indictment. I confess to being surprised by this result. I expected the split »

This week’s polls show improvement for Trump

Featured image This week saw the release of six major surveys of a Clinton-Trump head-to-head race. Five of them have Clinton in the lead. They are IBD/TIPP (Clinton +4), Fox News (Clinton +6), PPP, a Democratic firm (Clinton +4), Quinnipiac (Clinton +2), and Reuters/Ipsos (Clinton +10). One poll, by Rasmussen, has Trump ahead (+4). Quinnipiac and Reuters had the largest sample sizes. The margin of error (MOE) for these two polls is »

Poll: Trump 37, Cruz 35 in Indiana

Featured image According to a survey by Clout Research, Donald Trump holds only a two point lead over Ted Cruz in Indiana. It’s Trump 37, Cruz 35, and Kasich 16. I’m not familiar with Clout Research. However, FiveThirtyEight, which obsesses over pollster reliability, gives good weight to Clout’s Indiana poll. In addition, my look at its polls during this election season did not indicate that Clout shouldn’t be taken seriously. For example, »

Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 43

Featured image A new GW Battleground Poll has Donald Trump within three points of Hillary Clinton. Her support is at 46 percent; his is at 43 percent. The poll is a bipartisan effort — a collaboration between Ed Goeas’s Tarrance Group (Republican) and Celinda Lake’s Lake Research Partners (Democrat). They surveyed 1,000 “registered likely voters.” The margin of error is plus/minus 3.1 percent. Other surveys show Trump considerably further behind Clinton. In »

Concern about crime soars; non-whites most concerned

Featured image A new Gallup poll finds that 53 percent of Americans worry “a great deal” about crime and violence. This figure represents a 15-year high. Two years ago, only 39 percent worried a great deal about these problems. Last year, 43 percent did. No wonder bipartisan legislation that would free thousands of federal criminals and reduce sentences for various drug crimes going forward has stalled. Speaking of illegal drugs, the Gallup »

Poll: Cruz has surged past Trump in Wisconsin

Featured image A poll by Marquette Law School finds Ted Cruz well ahead of Donald Trump in Wisconsin’s Republican primary among likely voters. According to the poll, Cruz is at 39.6 percent; Trump at 30.4 percent; and John Kasich at 21.4 percent. The survey was conducted before Scott Walker endorsed Ted Cruz. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49.2 to 44.9. And in the Senate race, Russ Feingold has »

Why demographics doom Donald Trump

Featured image David Byler of RealClearPoliticis asks whether demographics will sink Donald Trump. He then provides a lengthy analysis of the question, based on “demographic data and election fundamentals.” He examines various scenarios and even provides a nifty interactive device into which one can feed various assumptions about turnout and preference by various racial and ethnic groups. However, Byler doesn’t mention the group that, in all likelihood, dooms Trump’s candidacy. That “demographic” »

Trump less dominant in recent polls

Featured image The pattern has been the same throughout this campaign season. After each big primary, I look at the polling for the next major contest — e.g., Florida, South Carolina, or Michigan — and see Donald Trump leading by around 15 points. As the primary approaches, there is talk that the gap might be narrowing, and on election day we hear that the late voters have broken in favor of a »

Trump leads in Illinois, but with only 32 percent

Featured image On March 15, all eyes will be on Florida and Ohio. This is understandable because (1) they are the home states of Marco Rubio and John Kasich, respectively and (2) they are winner-take-all contests. However, attention should also be paid to the primary in Illinois on the same day. In some ways, this primary may be more indicative of GOP sentiment than the ones in Florida and Ohio. There is »

Good polling news, for a change

Featured image A new Quinnipiac poll provides needed good political news for folks like me. It finds that in the key state of Ohio, Hillary Clinton trails, or is in a virtual tie with, the leading Republican presidential contenders. John Kasich, Ohio’s popular governor, crushes Hillary, 54-37. Marco Rubio also does well, winning the head-to-head 47-42. In addition, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump top Clinton by 46-43 and 44-42, respectively. The margin »

Can the GOP field be reduced, in time, to two?

Featured image David French at NRO looks at polling data for upcoming GOP presidential races. He finds the numbers “great for Trump [and] terrible for everyone else.” There’s a paradox at work here, however. If the numbers are terrible for two of the three candidates in the credible non-Trump field (Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich) and merely bad for the third candidate, then that’s not so good for Trump. Here’s why. For Trump »

Fox News poll has Sanders ahead of Clinton nationally, and both ahead of Trump

Featured image I never expected to be typing these words, but a new Fox News poll has Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton nationally, 47-44. Last month, Clinton led Sanders 49-37 in the Fox News poll. Two months ago, Clinton led Sanders by 22 points. Last summer, Fox News had her up by 46 points. It should be noted, however, that a new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, also released today, finds »

Jeb’s last stand

Featured image I probably should add a question mark to the title of this post, since I can’t say with high confidence that the South Carolina primary actually will be the end of the presidential campaign for Jeb Bush. But yesterday, according to multiple reports, the “joyful” warrior was noticeably deflated when he appeared at the campaign event, following word that Nikki Haley was about to endorse Marco Rubio. The Washington Post »

Meanwhile in Nevada

Featured image Hillary Clinton seems to be coasting towards victory in the South Carolina primary, but Nevada is a different story. A new CNN/ORC poll finds her in a virtual deadlock with Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s one point lead (48-47) is well within the margin of error (fewer than 300 people participated). As the preferred candidate of the union bosses, Clinton may be better positioned than Sanders to get supporters to show up »

Trump and Sanders surge

Featured image The big political news this morning comes via Drudge in the new Quinnipiac poll that is posted here. Quinnipiac notes that it conducted its survey over the period February 10-15. Donald Trump’s outrageous performance at the South Carolina debate on the evening of February 13 is therefore not fully factored into this poll. As of the dates covered by this poll, Trump continues to surge. Quinnipiac provides this summary of »