Poll

Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton had a 99 percent probability of winning [With Comment by John]

Featured image On the eve of the 2012 election, I viewed the Obama-Romney as a toss-up that the challenger would, slightly more likely than not, win. After all, the polls showed the president up by only around 1 point nationally and late deciders are thought generally to break against the incumbent. When I expressed this view to members of the smart set — both just before and just after the election — »

Is Virginia in play?

Featured image Late last month I tuned my car radio to the local news station hoping for a sports update. Instead, Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe was doing what I think is a weekly show. He was talking about Donald Trump’s advertising in Virginia. The combative McAuliffe said he hopes Trump pours plenty of money into the Commonwealth because it will all be wasted. Soon thereafter, though, Clinton began advertising in Northern Virginia. »

Good news from Wisconsin and Indiana

Featured image Hillary Clinton’s woes and Donald Trump’s revival figure to be good news for “down ballot” Republican candidates. I don’t think the House was ever going to flip, but not long ago the Senate seemed very likely to. Now, perhaps, the GOP will maintain control. I want to focus on two races — one that we have covered extensively and one I’m not sure we have discussed at all. In Wisconsin, »

Trump’s prospects

Featured image Earlier today, in a piece called “The post-Trump GOP,” I said I’m convinced that Hillary Clinton will be elected president. I didn’t mean to suggest that Trump has no chance of winning. I’m convinced that the Washington Redskins won’t win the Super Bowl this year, but they have some chance of winning it. What is the likelihood that Trump will defeat Clinton? The folks at FiveThirtyEight say it’s about 15 »

What’s Up With the Polls?

Featured image There’s quite a variance in the polling numbers for Trump and Hillary Clinton, complicated by the fact that some polls only offer a choice between the two major party candidates, and ignore Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Some polls have Hillary leading by as much as 15 points, while the Los Angeles Times poll continues to show Trump leading or virtually tied. (The methodology of the Times »

Two polls have Clinton winning the debate

Featured image In a CNN poll of debate-watchers, 62 percent thought Clinton won the debate compared to 27 percent for Trump — a 35-point margin. According to Nate Silver, that’s the third-widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll, which date back to 1984. Only a 1992 debate between Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush and the first Obama-Romney debate were viewed as more one-sided. Meanwhile, a PPP poll had »

Bogus allegations of “racism” undermine honest policy debate

Featured image Yesterday, Steve discussed a Reuters/Ipsos poll that measured the views of Americans towards blacks. Here’s how Slate described the results of the poll: A significant slice of Americans expressed racist views against blacks, and those who identify as Donald Trump supporters are more likely to fall into that group, though Hillary Clinton supporters are definitely there too. The characterization of “racism” is Slate’s (per author Josh Voorhees), not Reuters’s. It’s »

Our undecided electorate

Featured image I think everyone recognizes that the presidential race has tightened considerably in the past two weeks. Hillary Clinton’s national lead is down to around 3 points and, as one would expect, the swing states are pretty consistent with the national margin. But here’s something I think many people don’t realize or haven’t focused on. Around 20 percent of the electorate is either undecided or saying it will vote for someone »

Clinton losing support among Hispanics

Featured image Will Donald Trump’s pivot on immigration and his trip to Mexico change the way Hispanic voters view him? I don’t know. But quite apart from anything Trump is doing, Hispanics view Hillary Clinton less favorably than they did earlier this year. According to the Washington Post, a new Latino Decisions poll found that 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they will definitely vote for Clinton or were leaning towards »

Trump is gaining on Clinton

Featured image While Hillary Clinton reportedly is trying to “run out the clock,” Donald Trump is improving his status in the polls. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight puts Clinton’s national lead at 6.5 percentage points as of Sunday evening, down from 8.5 two weeks ago. He estimates Trump’s chances of winning at around one-fifth to one-fourth, also an improvement. A 6.5 point lead is still pretty substantial. However, we’re ten weeks away from »

Trump running behind GOP Senate candidates in many key states

Featured image In this post, I expressed doubt that Donald Trump’s candidacy will have a significantly adverse effect on other Republicans running this year, unless Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide (which may happen). My post prompted a reader to send me some polls through which we can compare Trump’s standing in swing states with that of the Republican Senate candidates running in them. Here are the RCP averages: Ohio Trump -2.6 »

Clinton attracting only two-thirds of Sanders voters

Featured image Harry Enten at FiveThrityEight reports that, according to poll data, Hillary Clinton has the support of only two-thirds of Bernie Sanders voters in a race that provides more than two options. In such a race, Clinton wins 69 percent of Sanders supporters in CNN’s latest poll and 65 percent in Marist’s ( YouGov has Clinton doing much worse with the Sanders crowd, but this looks like an outlier). Clinton did »

Polls show Hillary pulling away from Trump

Featured image Recent polls show that Hillary Clinton clearly in the lead over Donald Trump. She’s ahead in all four polls in the RCP list that were taken since the end of the Democratic convention. Here are the results: PPP (7/29-30) Clinton +5 (1,267 LV) CBS (7/29-31) Clinton +6 (1,131 RV) CNN (7/29-31) Clinton +9 (894 RV) YouGov (7/30-8/1) Clinton +3 (933 RV) (Note that three of the four polls are of »

Clinton seems to have gotten a bounce

Featured image It’s too early to say for sure, but recent polling suggests that Hillary Clinton received a bounce from the Democratic convention. The magnitude of her bounce is unclear but looks to be of about the same magnitude as the one Donald Trump probably received from the Republican convention. As I discussed here, heading into the Republican event, Clinton had in led four of the five most recent polls on the »

Trump gets a bounce

Featured image The Republican convention may have been “dark” and “disunited,” to use the MSM’s favorite descriptions, but its nominee appears to have gotten a “bounce” from the event. Heading into the convention, Clinton had led in four of the five latest polls in the RCP list. In polls taken since the convention began, Clinton has led only once. In the four most recently completed surveys, Trump leads by 1, 2, 3, »

The state of the race

Featured image I’m aware of four polls of the presidential race conducted since the McClatchy/Marist survey that I wrote about here. Two of them have Donald Trump ahead: Rasmussen by 7 points and USC/LA Times by 3. One poll, CBS News/New York Times, has the race dead even. The other, Economist/YouGov, has Clinton ahead by 2 points. If one throws in the McClatchy survey (Clinton +3) and the two conflicting battleground state »

Polls suggest some improvement for Trump following Comey’s remarks

Featured image In the first poll I’ve seen that was taken after James Comey’s statement regarding the Clinton email scandal, McClatchy/Marist finds Clinton leading by 3 points, 42-39. McClatchy declares this a dramatic shrinkage of Clinton’s lead, saying it’s the first time Clinton’s support has come in at less than 50 percent. As far as I can tell, however, McClatchy/Marist hasn’t polled the race since late March. (Clinton’s lead was 9 points »