Poll

Today in NY Times Biden Doom-polling

Featured image Today’s third NY Times installment about their most recent poll piles on the bad news for Biden: not only are you losing to Trump head-to-head, and are unpopular, but today we learn that more voters like Trump’s policies and record better than Biden’s. Here’s the graphic depiction: Some excerpts from the Times: And despite holding intensely and similarly critical opinions both of President Biden and of his predecessor, Americans have »

Looking ahead

Featured image Here’s a political prediction I think you can take to the bank: the candidate who prevails among independent voters in November 2024 will win the presidential election. In the latest (2023) Gallup telephone survey data of partisan identification, the percentage of adult respondents identifying as Democrats has fallen to a new low of 27 percent — tied with the percentage of adults identifying as Republican. Independents rule (“independents continue to »

Generation H(amas)

Featured image The New York Post’s Jon Levine reports the worst results of the December 13-14 Harvard Harris Poll of more than 2,034 registered voters last week: “Majority of Americans 18-24 think Israel should ‘be ended and given to Hamas.’” Levine links to a PDF of the poll results here. The survey methodology is set forth on slide 2. The poll is full of interesting results bearing on presidential politics and the »

Americans Are On Israel’s Side

Featured image Our “elite” universities–a designation that doesn’t mean their students know anything about history, can do math, know anything about science or are acquainted with Western (or any) literature–have come down heavily on the side of Hamas in the current Middle Eastern conflict. This may be due to the fact that Islamic countries have poured billions of dollars into their coffers, or maybe it is just the usual perversity of American »

Biden’s Freefall Continues

Featured image Ordinarily presidents enjoy some upward bump in their approval rating when there is a world crisis such as the new war in Israel, but Biden continues to sink despite his high-profile visit to Israel and Oval Office speech. According to the latest Gallup Poll Biden’s approval rating has fallen four points from 41 percent last month to 37 percent now—an all time low in Gallup’s series. Most significant is that »

Record Number of Voters Prefer GOP On Economy

Featured image This is from Stephen Moore’s excellent Unleash Prosperity Hotline, a daily email that you can subscribe to here. I recommend it: Yesterday’s other big news was this survey result from GALLUP, with a question they have been asking since 1951 with Republicans never scoring higher than right now: “Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country »

Republicans Gaining With Voters

Featured image This Morning Consult poll is a week old, but still worth noting. It finds that Democrats’ standing with voters has declined significantly since 2020, while Republicans have gained. Of course, this is what one would expect with the disastrous Biden administration, but it is good to see it reflected here: I suppose Matt Gaetz is undermining the Republicans’ edge on the “capable of governing” metric. This is the key chart. »

“Biden poll disaster”

Featured image “Biden poll disaster” is how Drudge flags the just-released ABC News/Washington Post poll results reported here by Gary Langer (PDF with full results, charts, and tables posted here). Clicking on the story, I thrilled to the beat of the first few paragraphs. President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say »

Poll: Nearly Half of Americans Under 30 Support Sending US Troops to Defend Ukraine

Featured image A CBS News/YouGov poll found that 48% of adults under the age of 30 support sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine. I’m rather struck by such a high number given that the military is failing to reach recruitment goals among this very demographic. Perhaps they feel it’s a good idea as long as it isn’t them being sent to the front lines. The numbers drop off sharply among older age »

How the other half thinks

Featured image The good Jim Messina is the guitarist, songwriter, producer, and former member of Buffalo Springfield, Poco, and Loggins and Messina. The bad Jim Messina is the smart former operative and campaign manager of Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign. He has prepared a 22-slide presentation to reassure nervous Democrats sweating out Joe Biden’s descent into senescent oblivion. Politico has posted the slides here along with the related Playbook story here. Discounting »

No Politico, DeSantis’ Internal Poll Data Is Not Scrambling GOP Primary

Featured image Two days after the Aug. 23 Republican primary debate, a poll showed that support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had jumped by 7 points in the state of Iowa. The headline at Fox News screamed, “Iowa poll shows Florida gov closing the gap on Trump after first Republican debate.” Excited about his post-debate bounce, I was all set to write about it until I saw that the poll had been »

Pollster: Trump is ‘stronger today than he’s ever been’

Featured image In a Tuesday interview with conservative podcaster Charlie Kirk, Big Data pollster Rich Baris claimed that support for former President Donald Trump is stronger today than in either 2016 or 2020. He also believes the 2024 election will be a “total disaster for the Democrats.” From his lips to God’s ears. Here’s some of what Baris had to say: It’s just not 2020. It’s not 2016. They are just totally »

The Trump prospect

Featured image I supported President Trump until January 6, 2021. However, when Trump made it clear that his endgame was urging his supporters to go up to Capitol Hill and “make your voices heard” to urge Vice President Pence to “do[] the right thing” — “[b]ecause if Mike Pence does the right thing, we win the election” — and reject the certification of the electoral college results, I got off the train. »

Liars, Damn Liars, Statisticians. . . and Pollsters

Featured image The old saying, “There are liars, damn liars, and statisticians,” should be amended to include pollsters. The latest exhibit in polling as a “pseudo-event” (an artificial event created by advocates solely to generate a news headline, pace Daniel Boorstin) is an AP-NORC poll just out which the AP advertises with this headline: Most in US say don’t ban race in college admissions but its role should be small: AP-NORC poll »

Biden’s Free Fall Continues

Featured image It was possible to dismiss the ABC News/Washington Post poll a couple weeks back that had dismal numbers for Joe Biden as an outlier, but then the Harvard/Harris poll reported similar dismal results for Biden. And now CNN joins the pile on, with a poll showing Biden’s approval rating continuing to slump all the way down to 35 percent. President Joe Biden’s bid for a second term begins with a »

Trafalgar in retrospect [With Comment by John]

Featured image I am still kicking myself for having credited the Trafalgar polls of Minnesota and other states in the runup to this week’s midterm elections. I think we should account for our errors. I apologized to readers in “After last night” and I reiterate it here. I think we should acknowledge our errors and account for them. My mistake in this case was attributable to my understanding of Trafalgar’s recent record »

Reader Poll: Looking Ahead to 2024

Featured image A disproportionate number of the comments on our recent posts critical of Trump’s role in the mid-term election, and his responses in the last few days, have disagreed sharply with us. So I think it is time to hear from a wider cross-section of our readership—from the 99 percent of our readers who seldom or never comment here, on the question. Not a long poll—just two short questions. (Be sure »