Poll

A South Carolina poll

Featured image Bill Kristol calls attention to a poll from South Carolina that he obtained from a political operative he trusts. The operative is not working with a campaign, but his organization, using a “reputable pollster,” took a poll Wednesday night. The results were as follows: Trump 32 Cruz 26 Rubio 20 Bush 10 Carson 7 Kasich 2 Is Rubio really doubling up Bush? Is he within 6 points of Cruz? I’m »

Polls show Rubio surging in New Hampshire [UPDATED: the Romney factor] [UPDATED AGAIN]

Featured image Marco Rubio has been criticized, perhaps with some justification, for acting on Monday night almost as if he won the Iowa caucuses, rather than finishing third. But polling in New Hampshire (and at least one national poll) suggests that Rubio is getting the biggest bounce of any GOP candidate out of Iowa. The New Hampshire polls tell conflicting stories, however, on the crucial question of how close Rubio (and Ted »

Des Moines Register poll shows Trump and Clinton leading

Featured image The final Des Moines Register poll, released over the weekend, shows Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa. He has 28 percent support compared to 23 percent for Ted Cruz and 15 percent for Marco Rubio. Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by a narrow 45-42 tally. If this poll accurately predicts the outcome, it won’t be a happy night for me. I’m rooting for Sanders and either »

Happy New Year, Hillary

Featured image In our end-of-the-year podcast for 2014, I predicted that in the coming year Hillary Clinton would not “clear the field” in her quest for the Democratic nomination. (I also predicted that the Washington Nationals would play in the World Series — they didn’t even make the playoffs — and that Everton would have its worst season in almost a decade — they did, sadly). By “clearing the field,” I meant »

The American public’s dim view of leniency for drug traffickers

Featured image Bill Otis reports that Opinion Research Corporation, in a poll taken during the period Nov. 19-22, asked a sample of 1008 adults the following question: Thinking about the criminal justice system, which comes closer to your view — that we have too many drug traffickers in prison for too long, or that we don’t do enough to keep drug traffickers off the street? It was no contest. Only 30 percent »

Ted Cruz surges in Iowa

Featured image A new Quinnipiac poll of likely Iowa caucus-goer shows Ted Cruz surging into a virtual tie for first place with Donald Trump. Cruz comes in at 23 percent, just two points behind Trump. Ben Carson has slipped to 18 percent (from 28 percent in the previous Quinnipiac poll). Marco Rubio is in fourth place at 13 percent. The margin of error is +/-4 points. Cruz is the natural beneficiary of »

Trump fading in Iowa

Featured image The two most recent Iowa polls suggest that Ben Carson is pulling away from Donald Trump. A new poll by Monmouth College gives the good doctor a 14 point lead (32-18) over the blustery tycoon. Similarly, a Loras College poll has Carson up by 12 points, 31-19. It’s too early to draw firm conclusions from these surveys about how the race will play out. For example, Carson might falter in »

Trump still rolling, empire yet to strike back

Featured image There’s another poll of the GOP presidential race out, a Washington Post-ABC News production. It tells basically the same story as its predecessors. Donald Trump continues to lead with a little better than 30 percent support; Ben Carson remains in second a little above 20 percent; Marco Rubio holds third place at about 10 percent. Despite Trump’s consistently strong showing, Nate Silver and the folks at FiveThirtyEight remain unimpressed. They »

Poll: Clinton’s support among Dems drops 10 points in less than a week

Featured image According to polling by Reuters/Ipsos, Hillary Clinton’s support among Democratic voters fell from 51 percent to 41 percent from October 4 to October 9. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders’ share rose from 24 to 28 percent and Joe Biden’s from 16 to 20 percent. This particular poll has been pretty volatile. I suspect that Clinton’s actual loss of support in such a short period isn’t as dramatic as Reuters/Ispos found. The loss »

Fiorina and Rubio surge, as Trump and Carson slide

Featured image Debates matter. That’s not a scoop. Yet many doubted whether Marco Rubio’s quality performance last week in California would help him, and the doubts weren’t unreasonable. After all, he had debated very well in Cleveland, yet received no significant bounce. This time, though, Rubio has been rewarded. A new CNN/ORC poll shows him at 11 percent, up from 3 percent less than two weeks ago. The poll is of Republicans »

Poll: Fiorina leads in New Hampshire

Featured image A poll by an outfit called Voter Gravity has Carly Fiorina leading the Republican field in New Hampshire. She’s at 22 percent, four points ahead of Donald Trump. Ben Carson, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush all hover around the 10 percent mark. I put little stock in this poll. However, since Wednesday’s debate I’ve been thinking that Trump’s fellow “non-political class” members could land a one-two punch against him in »

Democratic-leaning women abandon Hillary in droves

Featured image While some of us wonder whether Donald Trump’s poll numbers with GOP women will hold up, Hillary Clinton’s numbers with Democratic women plummet. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 42 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters say they expect to vote for Hillary. Eight weeks ago, 71 percent expected to. Mildly sexist insults are one thing; blatant dishonesty and possible criminality are another. Or so it seems. Clinton’s »

“Truth”: Not the Only Bad News From Toronto

Featured image Scott wrote here about the absurd movie Truth, which tries to sell the idea that the Mary Mapes/Dan Rather fantasy about George W. Bush was real after all. Truth premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last night. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the only bad news to come out of the film festival. There is also this: Jessica Chastain is taking on gun control in a new political thriller, thanks to EuropaCorp »

Trump surges past Hillary (and the rest of the Democratic field)

Featured image A new poll from SurveyUSA shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 5 points (45-40). I’m not really surprised. Hillary is a poor candidate with major (and mounting) problems. Trump is also leading Bernie Sanders by basically the same margin (44-42). This isn’t surprising either. Sanders is a socialist with low name-recognition. But how do we explain the fact that Trump also leads Joe Biden (44-42) and Al Gore (44-41)? »

Poll: Trump and Carson tied in Iowa

Featured image Over the weekend, I discussed a Bloomberg-Des Moines Register poll that puts Dr. Ben Carson within 5 points of Donald Trump (23-18) among likely Iowa caucus-goers. I speculated that Carson was a better fit than Trump for Iowa Republicans given his geniality and unfeigned social conservatism. Now, a freshly-minted Monmouth poll has Carson tied with Trump at 23 percent. According to Monmouth, this marks the first time since late July »

Iowa poll: Trump 23, Carson 18; Clinton 37, Sanders 30

Featured image A brand new Bloomberg-Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa finds Donald Trump in the lead with 23 percent. Ben Carson runs second with 18 percent. Carson is the second choice of 14 percent; Trump ranks second for 9 percent. In three polls taken earlier this month, Trump led Carson by an average margin of almost 8 points. Thus, Carson has gained on Trump. But Trump will »

Bad polling news for Hillary Clinton

Featured image The latest Quinnipiac poll is full of fascinating information, much of it unfavorable to Hillary Clinton. Among the highlights are: In Florida, Bush tops Clinton 49-38 percent; Rubio leads Clinton 51-39 percent; Trump leads her 43-41. In Ohio, Rubio leads Clinton 42-40, but Bush trails her 39-41 and Trump trails 38-43. In Pennsylvania, long a Blue State, Rubio and Bush lead Clinton 47-40 and 43-40, respectively, but Clinton beats Trump »