Poll
June 17, 2013 — Paul Mirengoff
President Obama’s approval rating is down to 45 percent, according to a CNN/ORC poll of 1,014 adult Americans. 54 percent disapprove of his job performance. A month ago, the same pollsters found that 53 percent approved of the Obama presidency while 45 percent disapproved. Thus, his numbers have, in essence, flipped — a turnaround of 8 points if one focuses on the “approval” side. Although the decline in Obama’s approval
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April 15, 2013 — John Hinderaker
A basic assumption underlying our federal system is that in general, a governmental unit that is closer to the people will be more responsive and more efficient than one that is more remote. Therefore, the presumption should be in favor of local or state government control, rather than federal. This presumption has been borne out by experience, as Americans have traditionally expressed more confidence in their local governments than in
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April 10, 2013 — Paul Mirengoff
I’ve long been impressed by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and consider him a top-tier prospect for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016. But recently I noticed that Jindal’s approval number in Louisiana shows him, at this time, to be highly unpopular. For example, a March poll from Southern Media & Opinion Research put Jindal’s approval rating at 38 percent, against 60 percent disapproval. Would this level of unpopularity, assuming it
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March 19, 2013 — John Hinderaker
Geraldo Rivera says he is excited about the prospect of running for the Senate from New Jersey. As a Republican! Who knew? Geraldo says he feels the need to give back by serving the people. Unfortunately your browser does not support IFrames. So what do you think about the prospect of Rivera running for the Senate?
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March 13, 2013 — Paul Mirengoff
Based on the results of a Washington Post/ABC News poll, the Post concludes that President Obama is losing public trust when it comes to the economy. The numbers support that conclusion. They show Obama’s overall approval rating down by 5 points from just before his second term, to 50 percent. Of the seven post-World War II presidents who served a second term, only George W. Bush had a lower approval
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March 4, 2013 — Paul Mirengoff
Is it because folks remembered President Obama’s promise during one of the debates that there will be no sequester? Is it because word got out that the sequester was Obama’s idea? Is it because folks don’t mind the sequester and resent Obama’s effort to make it sound like the end of the world? Is it because the flap with Bob Woodward was more storm than drizzle? Or is it just
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November 5, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Ohio Rasmussen: Obama 49, Romney 49 U. of Cin: Obama 50, Romney 48.5 (with leaners included) Florida Jax Times-Union/Insider Advantage: Obama 47, Romney 52 Iowa ARG: Obama 48, Romney 49 Virginia Rasmussen: Obama 48, Romney 50
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November 5, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Massachusetts: A UMass/Boston Herald poll has Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, 49-48, among likely voters. However, other recent pollsfind Warren ahead by about 5 points. UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll. This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However,
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November 4, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Mary Katharine Ham finds that in the waning days of this election, Mitt Romney has closed the “likeability gap,” formerly thought to be President Obama’s greatest asset, in three national polls. The polls in question are Washington Post/ABC News (Obama viewed favorably by 54 percent, Romney by 53 percent); Politico/GW (Obama 51 percent; Romney 50 percent); and Fox News (Obama 52; Romney 51). It’s not difficult to believe that Romney
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November 4, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Montana is a Red State, and there will be no good excuse if Republican Denny Rehberg (a Power Line Pick Six candidate) does not defeat liberal Democrat Jon Tester this year. But the absence of a good excuse for losing doesn’t ensure victory in Red State Senate races — a lesson that likely will be reinforced in one or more Senate race on Tuesday. Fortunately, Rehberg has run a pretty
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November 4, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Michael Barone has predicted that Mitt Romney will carry Iowa. The polls, however, tend to favor President Obama. NBC/WSJ/Marist shows President Obama up by 6 percentage points — 50 to 44 percent; Gravis Marketing shows Obama up 4 points — 49 to 45 percent; WeAskAmerica shows Obama up 1.5 points — 48.8 to 47.3 percent; while Rasmussen shows Mitt Romney up 1 point — 49 to 48 percent. At the
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November 2, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Yesterday, via a reader who follows Nevada politics closely who used early vote data as his starting point, we served up some number crunching on the status of the presidential election in Nevada. Today, Jim Geraghty performs the same kind of number crunching in Iowa. Geraghty’s bottom line is that the situation in Iowa looks good for Romney, assuming that polls showing the Governor with a 9 point lead among
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November 1, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Ramussen has released new polls from three important states: Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Here are the results: Colorado — Romney 50, Obama 47 Iowa — Romney 49, Obama 48 Wisconsin — Romney 49, Obama 49 Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll showed Romney leading in the most important of all states, Ohio, by 50 to 48. All of these results seem plausible to me. However, if you shifted the margins
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November 1, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Many of us have been puzzled by the conflicting signals sent out by national polling (good news for Romney) and state polling (mostly good news for Obama). The disparity has led to speculation that Romney might well win the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College. But the normal odds against such an occurrence make us wonder whether something is amiss with either the national or the state polling.
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October 31, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Although preference polls portray the presidential race as essentially deadlocked, polling on fundamental issues continues to favor Mitt Romney. The latest such poll comes from AP. It finds that 47 percent of likely voters believe Romney would be better than President Obama at ending the “logjam” in Washington, while only 37 percent say Obama would be better than Romney in this respect. The same poll finds Romney leading Obama by
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October 31, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
A Pew Research Poll finds that Mitt Romney leads President Obama among those who have already voted by a margin of 50-43. One-fifth of likely voters have already cast their ballots, according to Pew. However, Pew deems Romney’s margin with this group statistically insignificant due to the small sample size. Overall, Pew found Romney and Obama tied nationally at 47 percent each. To the extent that Romney is doing better
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October 31, 2012 — Paul Mirengoff
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 5 points in Virginia, 49 to 44, in a poll conducted by Roanoke College between Oct.23-26. The sample consisted of 638 likely voters. The margin of error is 4 points. Using a more selective screen for identifying likely voters, Roanoke College’s poll found Romney ahead by a commanding 54-41 margin. Thus, if these results are accurate, Obama will need a strong turnout just to
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