Fiorina and Rubio surge, as Trump and Carson slide

Featured image Debates matter. That’s not a scoop. Yet many doubted whether Marco Rubio’s quality performance last week in California would help him, and the doubts weren’t unreasonable. After all, he had debated very well in Cleveland, yet received no significant bounce. This time, though, Rubio has been rewarded. A new CNN/ORC poll shows him at 11 percent, up from 3 percent less than two weeks ago. The poll is of Republicans »

Poll: Fiorina leads in New Hampshire

Featured image A poll by an outfit called Voter Gravity has Carly Fiorina leading the Republican field in New Hampshire. She’s at 22 percent, four points ahead of Donald Trump. Ben Carson, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush all hover around the 10 percent mark. I put little stock in this poll. However, since Wednesday’s debate I’ve been thinking that Trump’s fellow “non-political class” members could land a one-two punch against him in »

Democratic-leaning women abandon Hillary in droves

Featured image While some of us wonder whether Donald Trump’s poll numbers with GOP women will hold up, Hillary Clinton’s numbers with Democratic women plummet. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 42 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters say they expect to vote for Hillary. Eight weeks ago, 71 percent expected to. Mildly sexist insults are one thing; blatant dishonesty and possible criminality are another. Or so it seems. Clinton’s »

“Truth”: Not the Only Bad News From Toronto

Featured image Scott wrote here about the absurd movie Truth, which tries to sell the idea that the Mary Mapes/Dan Rather fantasy about George W. Bush was real after all. Truth premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last night. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the only bad news to come out of the film festival. There is also this: Jessica Chastain is taking on gun control in a new political thriller, thanks to EuropaCorp »

Trump surges past Hillary (and the rest of the Democratic field)

Featured image A new poll from SurveyUSA shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 5 points (45-40). I’m not really surprised. Hillary is a poor candidate with major (and mounting) problems. Trump is also leading Bernie Sanders by basically the same margin (44-42). This isn’t surprising either. Sanders is a socialist with low name-recognition. But how do we explain the fact that Trump also leads Joe Biden (44-42) and Al Gore (44-41)? »

Poll: Trump and Carson tied in Iowa

Featured image Over the weekend, I discussed a Bloomberg-Des Moines Register poll that puts Dr. Ben Carson within 5 points of Donald Trump (23-18) among likely Iowa caucus-goers. I speculated that Carson was a better fit than Trump for Iowa Republicans given his geniality and unfeigned social conservatism. Now, a freshly-minted Monmouth poll has Carson tied with Trump at 23 percent. According to Monmouth, this marks the first time since late July »

Iowa poll: Trump 23, Carson 18; Clinton 37, Sanders 30

Featured image A brand new Bloomberg-Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa finds Donald Trump in the lead with 23 percent. Ben Carson runs second with 18 percent. Carson is the second choice of 14 percent; Trump ranks second for 9 percent. In three polls taken earlier this month, Trump led Carson by an average margin of almost 8 points. Thus, Carson has gained on Trump. But Trump will »

Bad polling news for Hillary Clinton

Featured image The latest Quinnipiac poll is full of fascinating information, much of it unfavorable to Hillary Clinton. Among the highlights are: In Florida, Bush tops Clinton 49-38 percent; Rubio leads Clinton 51-39 percent; Trump leads her 43-41. In Ohio, Rubio leads Clinton 42-40, but Bush trails her 39-41 and Trump trails 38-43. In Pennsylvania, long a Blue State, Rubio and Bush lead Clinton 47-40 and 43-40, respectively, but Clinton beats Trump »

Hillary falls below 50 percent among Democrats

Featured image A Fox News poll finds that Hillary Clinton is favored by only 49 percent of Democrats. Bernie Sanders’ support is at 30 percent. That’s quite a swing from June, when Clinton led Sanders by 61-15. Clinton’s 19 point lead is still substantial. But in August 2007, she held a bigger lead over Barack Obama. Back then, she was ahead 48-26. In 2007, the race was much closer in states with »

Sanders continues to close the gap in New Hampshire

Featured image Socialist Bernie Sanders is now running only six points behind limousine socialist Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a WMUR Granite State poll. Clinton leads Sanders 42-36. This puts him only fractionally outside the poll’s margin of error. Although Clinton maintains a double-digit lead in New Hampshire in the Real Clear Politics average, that lead is inflated by a poll (by Bloomberg/St. Anselm) from mid-June that had Clinton up »

Lincoln Chafee, bum of the week

Featured image During the first half of 1941, Joe Louis, the heavyweight champion of the world, took on a series of challengers at the rate of one per month. Sportswriters dubbed the challengers “the bum of the month club.” In the past month or so, Hillary Clinton is picking up weak challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination at the rate of about one per week. First came Bernie Sanders, a 73 year-old »

New polls find Hillary under water

Featured image Have the “Clinton Cash” scandals and the release of some Benghazi emails hurt Hillary Clinton’s standing with the public? I don’t know. But something has. Jim Geraghty points to two polls. First, a brand new CNN poll finds that 46 percent see Hillary Clinton favorably, while 50 percent see her unfavorably. That’s quite a fall from March. Then, Clinton was viewed favorably by 53 percent of CNN respondents. Only 44 »

Can We Get an Injunction Against Ignorance?

Featured image Many weeks back I wrote here about the polls from the 1990s in which a majority of Democrats favored repealing the Public Affairs Act of 1975 because Bill Clinton was said to recommended repeal, with the punch line being that there is no such thing as the Public Affairs Act of 1975. It was a contrivance of pollsters to check on public ignorance. Well, some merry pranksters at Oklahoma State »

Next, let’s poll the police

Featured image From John Fund, I learn that President Obama’s support among members of the military has dropped to 15 percent, according to a survey taken by the Military Times newspaper. The Military Times conducts this survey of approximately 2,300 active-service members every year. In 2009, Obama’s level of support was a none-too-robust 35 percent. It has fallen steadily since, and now is at less than half of the original level. Meanwhile, »

Americans still see Bush-era interrogation techniques as justified and effective

Featured image One of the nobler, if not the only noble purpose of publicly releasing the Feinsten report was to fuel public debate about the very harsh interrogation techniques used in some instances by the CIA after 9/11. Predictably, though, the rekindled debate has been as stale as the original version had become. In any event, the returns from the debate are in. A Pew Research survey shows that, by a wide »

Say goodnight, Mary

Featured image Here is a poll to brighten your day. Bill Cassidy leads Mary Landrieu by 16 points, according to a survey by Magellan Strategies. The poll was taken for the Cassidy campaign, but the results don’t seem far-fetched. If you add Cassidy’s share of the vote on November 4 (41 percent) to the 14 percent share received by the other Republican in the race (Rob Maness), you get a landslide of »

Poll shows “war on women” theme isn’t working, among other good news

Featured image A new AP/Gfk poll provides lots of good news for Republicans. Perhaps most significantly, it shows that female likely voters no longer favor the Democrats in this election. AP/Gfk surveyed 1,608 adults. The sample included 968 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.8 for all respondents and 3.6 for likely voters. Last month, the survey found that female likely voters favored having a Congress controlled by Democrats by »