Poll

Say goodnight, Mary

Featured image Here is a poll to brighten your day. Bill Cassidy leads Mary Landrieu by 16 points, according to a survey by Magellan Strategies. The poll was taken for the Cassidy campaign, but the results don’t seem far-fetched. If you add Cassidy’s share of the vote on November 4 (41 percent) to the 14 percent share received by the other Republican in the race (Rob Maness), you get a landslide of »

Poll shows “war on women” theme isn’t working, among other good news

Featured image A new AP/Gfk poll provides lots of good news for Republicans. Perhaps most significantly, it shows that female likely voters no longer favor the Democrats in this election. AP/Gfk surveyed 1,608 adults. The sample included 968 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.8 for all respondents and 3.6 for likely voters. Last month, the survey found that female likely voters favored having a Congress controlled by Democrats by »

Poll: Obama is a flop

Featured image According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, registered voters believe, by a margin of 55-39, that President Obama is a failure, rather than a success, as president. Among all Americans, the conclusion is the same, though the margin is smaller — 52-42. Moreover, 41 percent of registered voters strongly believe that Obama is a failure. Thus, by a margin of 41-39, more registered voters strongly believe Obama has failed than »

Poll: Obama receives more than twice as much strong disapproval as strong approval

Featured image The latest Gallup poll on President Obama job performance is out. At the top line, things could be worse for the president and his party. 44 percent approve of his performance, while 53 percent disapprove. That’s considerably worse than in the run-up to the 2010 election, and certainly cause for concern among Democrats. But Dems won’t be surprised by this split which, as I said, could be worse. The intensity »

Scott Brown appears to be closing the gap in New Hampshire

Featured image Yesterday, I wrote about a new poll from Kellyanne Conway’s firm that found substantial public support for a hard line on immigration policy. Other pollsters may be seeing the same phenomenon because certain Republican Senate candidates — notably Scott Brown, Tom Cotton, and Terri Lind Land — have been running ads sounding the hard line theme. Given the diversity of the states in question — purple Michigan, red Arkansas, and »

What do Americans believe about immigration?

Featured image Kellyanne Conway has released the results of a new poll on immigration. The poll takes a deeper look at the issue than any survey I recall seeing. It finds that (1) immigration has become a massive issue, (2) neither political party has an edge on immigration, but (3) the issue represents a major opportunity for Republicans if they adopt a stance that favors American workers over immigrants. A majority of »

Poll: Harry Reid trails Gov. Sandoval in hypothetical senate race

Featured image I doubt that Harry Reid is doing this year’s Democratic Senatorial candidates any favors with his deranged attacks on the Koch Brothers, his changes to longstanding filibuster rules as a means of confirming left-wing judicial nominees, and his over-the-top partisan bluster. A new poll suggests that he isn’t doing himself any favors either. The survey, conducted this week by Harper Polling, shows Reid trailing Nevada’s popular governor Brian Sandoval by »

Democrats tilt towards Hamas, blame Republicans

Featured image Caroline Glick makes a persuasive case that under President Obama, America has switched sides in the Middle East. It has switched, that is, from Israel’s side to that of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. You could argue that Obama has switched sides twice. First, during the failed peace process, from Israel to the Palestinian Authority; now, in the Gaza war, from the PA to Hamas. After all, Obama undercut the »

Republicans are maintaining, and maybe expanding, their edge in battle for Senate

Featured image The Upshot, the New York Times’ successor to Nate Silver’s 538, gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. This assessment is similar to the one Silver rendered in June. Both assessments are based on poll averages. However, the research firm YouGov, in partnership with The New York Times and CBS News, has just released poll results that seem more favorable to the GOP. »

The politics of immigration have flipped the Republicans’ way

Featured image I have argued that the surge across our border of young illegal immigrants from Central America has flipped the immigration debate. Now, a Gallup poll shows that the politics of immigration have also flipped. 17 percent now say that immigration is the top problem the U.S. faces. A month ago, only 5 percent saw immigration as our number one problem. Immigration is now effectively tied with “dissatisfaction with government” as »

Ernst and Braley tied in Iowa

Featured image A new NBC/Marist poll of the Iowa Senate race finds Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 43 percent. The poll is of registered voters. The NBC/Marist result is in line with the findings, viewed collectively, of three surveys conducted last month. A Quinnipiac poll had Braley ahead by 4; a Loras College poll had Ernst up by 6; and a Rasmussen poll gave Ernst a 1 point »

Buyer’s Remorse: Obama Now Rated Worst Modern President

Featured image This Quinnipiac poll, released today, is getting a lot of press. Understandably so: Quinnipiac polled 1,446 registered voters nationwide, and a plurality of 33% tagged Barack Obama as the worst president since World War II. Such historical ratings are always biased toward the recent past, of course; 28% said George W. Bush was the worst. In a head-to-head comparison with Bush, 40% say Obama is worse, while 39% think Obama »

How deeply divided is the GOP?

Featured image The Pew Research Center is out with a study that, as characterized by the Washington Post, shows “the GOP faces continued instability because of profoundly different views on some issues held by those who identify with the party.” To me, the study presents a more mixed picture. The Pew study identifies two main Republican groups — the “business conservatives” and the “steadfast conservatives.” It finds significant commonalities between the two. »

Latest Poll Numbers Not Good for Obama or Clinton

Featured image Everyone seems to be talking this morning about the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll which tests public attitudes toward the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton. The full results are behind the Journal’s pay wall, but many of the results are publicly available. President Obama’s approval rating is falling. He is at 41% overall approval, with just 37%, the lowest percentage ever, approving of his performance on foreign policy. This »

Where we are now

Featured image John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin are Republican strategists and partners in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates. Over at NRO they take a look at current polling data and ask whether a mid-term tsunami is on the way. They look at changes over the past month and, not surprisingly, find them trending against Democrats. Obama is a drag and he has become even draggier, you might say, in the »

Poll: Voters leaning Republican in 2014 battleground races

Featured image A new poll conducted for Politico by SocialSphere Inc. of Cambridge, Massachusetts contains bad news for Democrats. Surveying voters in 16 states with competitive Senate races and dozens of congressional districts that may also be in play (according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics), Politico found that 43 percent intend to vote for the Republican Senate candidate, while only 36 percent intend to vote for the Democrat. The »

If Young People Don’t Like Government, Why Do They Keep Voting For More Of It?

Featured image Harvard’s Institute of Politics released a poll yesterday that showed millennials’ trust in government at a historic low. This chart shows how many respondents said that they trust the entity in question to do the right thing either all of the time or most of the time. Notably, 20% of millennials said they trust the federal government to do the right thing; 32% said they trust the president; and 14% »